000 AXNT20 KNHC 030005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Feb 03 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient between a trough that will extend from near 31N55W to 28N60W and to 29N67W and strong high pressure to its N will lead to gale-force N to NE winds 25-35 kt and seas of 12-16 ft N of trough to 31N and W to 60W by late tonight. The trough is forecast to dissipate by early Thu afternoon, and the tight gradient is forecast to ease just enough by 36 hours to allow for the gale-force winds to diminish to below gale-force, however seas of 10-14 ft in N to NE swell are expected N of about 28N and between 54W-63W, diminishing slightly on Fri. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to reach from southeastern Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico Thu evening, then from near Panama City, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche early Fri morning, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning. Strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas of up to 10-15 ft are expected in the wake of the front across the western Gulf Thu through Fri night. Conditions will gradually improve by late in the weekend. Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends 05N08W to 04N17W to 02N27W. A small ITCZ segment is S of the equator from 03S30W to 02S39W. Scattered moderate convection is well to the NW of this ITCZ segment from 01N to 06N between 46W-51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on an upcoming western Gulf gale-force wind event. A high pressure ridge extends from the Atlantic WSW to near 29N88W, while broad low pressure is over the rest of the Gulf. Fresh E to SE winds are over the basin, except for moderate SE to S winds in the NW Gulf. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the N-central Gulf and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except for 3-5 ft in W-central Gulf area. Isolated showers are over the eastern part of the north-central Gulf. As for the forecast, the next cold front will push off the coast of Texas early Thu. This front will reach from sou SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico Fri evening, from near Panama City, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche early Fri morning, and from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning. Strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front across the western Gulf Thu through Fri night. Conditions will gradually improve by late in the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A shearline extends from the tropical Atlantic waters near 20N57W WSW to just NW of Puerto Rico, and continues to across southern Hispaniola and to northern Jamaica and to near 20N85W. An upper level NE to SW oriented trough is along a line from near 21N74W to 18N81W. Scattered moderate convection, in small clusters, is over the interior of northern Hispaniola and over eastern Cuba. Patches of low-level moisture Isolated westward moving showers within patches of low-level moisture are noted over the central and eastern Caribbean waters. Strong to near-gale force winds NE to E are within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia, while fresh to strong winds E winds are elsewhere in the basin E of 81W, and southeast fresh winds are W of 81W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are in the range of 3-6 ft, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and 2-4 ft in the north-central Caribbean. As for the forecast, high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia, south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night through Fri night. Mainly moderate trade winds will continue elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on gale-force winds forecast to begin tonight N of a trough. An upper-level trough extends from near 31N67W to 25N71W and to eastern Cuba. This features supports an area of scattered moderate convection from 19N to 26N between 64W-72W. A dissipating cold front extends from near 31N46W to 24N50W and to 20N57W, where it transitions to a shearline that extends to just NW of Puerto Rico and the northern sections of the Caribbean Sea. Strong southwest winds are within 120 nm E of the front and N of 28N. Recently developed scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the dissipating front N of 29N. A frontal trough extends from 31N55W to 26N55W and to 21N63W. Isolated showers are possible along and near the trough. In the far eastern Atlantic a 1016 mb low is analyzed near 23N33W, with a trough extending from it to 31N34W and another trough extending WSW from the low to 21N36W and to 21N41W. Another 1016 mb low is to the northeast of this low near 28.5N24W, with a trough from it to near 31N24W and another SW to near 22N26W. Patches of moderate rain with embedded scattered showers are noted N of 26N and E of 22W. Seas range from 5-8 ft to the NW of the dissipating cold front and shearline northward and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except for higher seas of 6-8 ft south of 24N between 65W-71W. As for the forecast W of 65W, the fresh to locally strong trade present from the Florida Straits through the Old Bahama Channel to the area N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico will increase to strong speeds as the pressure gradient tightens in the area. A frontal trough over the central Atlantic will move south of 30N tonight, and will bring an increase in winds and seas mainly across the eastern forecast waters on Thu. N to NE swell behind the trough will propagate across the waters E of the Bahamas late this week and into the upcoming weekend. $$ Aguirre