000 AXNT20 KNHC 012328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Feb 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 06N between 26W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a 1012 mb low pressure near over Texas and 1023 mb high pressure over west-central Florida is producing fresh to strong SE to S winds over the east-central Gulf of Mexico. Seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail in this area. Moderate to fresh SE winds dominate the rest of the Gulf, except for light W flow behind the trough in the far NW Gulf. Seas are 4 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central Gulf will gradually diminish this evening as the low pres continues to move N. Fresh to strong SE to S return flow will then continue over portions of the central and eastern Gulf tonight into Thu. The next cold front will push off the coast of Texas early Thu. The front will reach from near Pensacola Florida to the south- central Bay of Campeche early Fri, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula early Sat, then begin to weaken over the SE Gulf. Strong to gale force northerly winds and building seas are expected across the western Gulf Thu night and Fri. Conditions will gradually improve by late in the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered over west-central Florida is maintaining a a tight pressure gradient between it and 1012 mb low pressure over Colombia. This is generating strong winds in the Windward Passage, with fresh winds S of of Cuba, around Jamaica, and N of Colombia. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in the western Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the eastern basin. No significant convection is occurring. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue across the Windward Passage and off Colombia, especially at night, through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the lee of Cuba through Thu night. Similar winds are expected in the Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are also forecast south of Hispaniola Thu into Fri night. Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure centered over west-central Florida is drifting E, leading to mainly gentle winds N of 24N and W of 65W. To the S, moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail. A stationary front extends from 31N52W to 20N70W. Moderate N winds and decaying seas of 6 to 8 ft are behind this front, with mainly moderate S winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft ahead of it. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the front, N of 25N and extending E of 50W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N33W to 21N35W with no significant convection. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, ridging from the Azores high dominates the pattern with winds generally moderate to fresh from the E to NE. Moderate seas in the 4 to 8 ft range prevail across the region. For the forecast W of 65W, winds north of Hispaniola will increase to strong to near gale force Wed night as the pressure gradient tightens in the area. A cold front over the central Atlantic will move south of 30N Wed night, and extend from 27N65W to 31N69W early Thu and from 23N65W to 26N73W to 31N74W early Fri. Strong NE to E winds will follow the cold front, mainly E of 70W, Thu into Fri night. N to NE swell with the front will increase seas NE of the Bahamas late this week and into the upcoming weekend. $$ ERA