000
AXNT20 KNHC 011656
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Feb 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 04N08W 
to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W to 01N33W to 01N48W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 06N 
between 31W and 48W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Low pressure of 1009 mb is just off the upper Texas coast,
producing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection across
the NW Gulf. Ahead of this low and its associated trailing trough,
which extends to just S of the Rio Grande, fresh to strong SE
winds are occurring across the north-central Gulf, with seas of 7
to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds dominate the rest of the Gulf,
except for light W flow behind the trough in the far NW Gulf. Seas
are 4 to 7 ft.  

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms along with fresh to
strong SE winds over the central Gulf will persist through today 
before the low pres moves N of the basin. Fresh to strong SE to S 
return flow will then continue over portions of the central and 
eastern Gulf tonight into early Thu. The next cold front is 
expected to push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing strong to 
gale force northerly winds and building seas across the western 
Gulf Thu night and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered just E of Florida is maintaining a 
a tight pressure gradient between the high and 1011 mb low 
pressure over Colombia. This is generating strong winds in the
Windward Passage, with fresh winds S of of Cuba, around Jamaica,
and N of Colombia. Mainly moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas
are 4-6 ft in the western Caribbean and 2-4 ft in the eastern 
basin. No significant convection is occurring. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue across 
the Windward Passage and off Colombia, especially at night, 
through Fri night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in 
the lee of Cuba through Thu night. Similar winds are expected in 
the Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela Wed night and Thu night. Fresh
to strong winds are also forecast south of Hispaniola Thu into 
Fri night. Mainly moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high pressure centered N of the Bahamas is drifting E,
leading to mainly gentle winds N of 24N and W of 65W. To the S,
moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail. A cold front extends
from 31N52W to 20N60W, with a trough behind the front from 31N57W
to 22N65W. Moderate N winds and decaying seas of 6 to 8 ft are
behind this front, with mainly moderate S winds and seas of 7 to 9
ft ahead of it. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the
front, N of 25N and extending E of 50W. Farther east, a 1015 mb
cut-off low pressure near 27N33W is inducing scattered moderate
convection in its eastern semicircle, from 22N to 30N between 27W
and 33W. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, ridging 
from the Azores high dominates the pattern with winds generally 
moderate to fresh from the E to NE. Moderate seas in the 4 to 8 ft
range prevail across the region.
 
For the forecast W of 65W, winds north of Hispaniola will 
increase to strong to near gale force Wed night as the pressure 
gradient tightens in the area. A cold front over the central 
Atlantic will move south of 30N Wed night, and extend from 27N65W 
to 31N69W early Thu and from 23N65W to 26N73W to 31N74W early Fri.
Strong NE to E winds will follow the cold front, mainly E of 70W,
Thu into Fri. N to NE swell with the front will increase seas NE 
of the Bahamas late this week and into the upcoming weekend. 

$$
KONARIK