000
AXNT20 KNHC 310952
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W 
to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 02N35W to 01N50W 
near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is evident
from 00N to 05N between 11W and 20W, and from 01N to 03N between 
30W and 39W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 high pressure is centered in the eastern Gulf near 26N84W.
This is causing mainly gentle to moderate winds across the central
and eastern gulf with moderate to fresh SE flow in the western 
portion of the basin. Seas are mainly slight with moderate 
conditions observed in the western gulf and Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the high center currently located over the 
northeastern Gulf will continue to move eastward today, then a 
ridge will persist across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong 
southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf tonight 
into Mon morning. These winds will spread eastward across the Gulf
region through Thu as the pressure gradient tightens between the 
ridge and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico. The next cold 
front is expected to push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing 
another round of gale force northerly winds and building seas 
across the western Gulf possibly Thu night and Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1025 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf extends into 
the western Caribbean. Fresh NE winds with a strong breeze in the
Windward Passage and offshore Nicaragua continue behind the front.
Seas in the area are moderate at 6-8 ft and abating. Conditions 
are generally more favorable east of the boundary with a moderate 
E-NE breeze and slight seas. The exception is in the Colombian 
Basin where an area of fresh winds along the coast of Colombia is 
producing moderate sea heights.

For the forecast, Fresh to strong N to NE winds will persist 
through the early morning hours along the coast of Honduras and 
Nicaragua. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds across the 
Windward Passage, mainly at night, through Wed night. Pulsing 
fresh to strong winds are also expected near the coast of 
Colombia, mainly at night, Mon night through Thu night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Low pressure over the Carolinas is causing a small area of strong
SW winds along the northern coast of Florida with seas building to
8 ft. A stationary front enters the area from the central Atlantic
near 31N56W and extends to Hispaniola. Scattered thunderstorms 
are noted along the front front Hispaniola north to beyond 31N.
Winds are moderate behind the front with rough seas prevailing 
east of the Bahamas and approaching 13 ft north of 27N. Conditions
are more favorable ahead of the front with gentle to moderate 
winds and moderate seas. Farther east, ridging from the Azores 
high dominates the pattern with winds generally moderate to fresh 
from the E to NE. Moderate seas in the 6 to 8 ft range prevail 
across the central and eastern Atlantic.
 
For the forecast W of 65W, winds along the front are gradually 
diminishing. However, large seas behind the front will persist E 
of the Bahamas through tonight. An increase in the pressure 
gradient across the region is expected to bring fresh to strong 
easterly winds and building seas toward the end of the week. 

$$
Torres