000 AXNT20 KNHC 310434 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jan 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W through 03N30W to 03N50W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 01N to 05N between 10W and 22W, and from 01N to 03N between 30W and 39W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 high pressure is centered in the eastern Gulf near 27N84W. This is causing mainly gentle to moderate winds across the central and eastern gulf with moderate to fresh SE flow in the western portion of the basin. Seas are mainly slight with moderate conditions observed in the western gulf and Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the high center currently located over the northeastern Gulf will continue to move eastward on Mon, then a ridge will persist across the basin through Thu. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf tonight into Mon morning. These winds will spread eastward across the Gulf region through Thu as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico. The next cold front is expected to push off the Texas coast on Thu bringing another round of gale force northerly winds and building seas across the western Gulf possibly Thu night and Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary boundary extends from Haiti to southern Nicaragua. NW of this feature, expect fresh NE winds with a a strong breeze in the Windward Passage and offshore Nicaragua. Seas in the area are moderate at 6-8 ft and abating. Conditions are generally more favorable east of the boundary with a moderate E-NE breeze and slight seas. The exception is in the Colombian Basin where an area of fresh winds along the coast of Colombia is producing moderate sea heights. For the forecast, the stationary front is weakening and will gradually dissipate into Mon. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will persist for the next 12 hours along the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds across the Windward Passage, mainly at night, through Wed night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are also expected near the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, Mon night through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure over the Carolinas is causing a small area of strong SW winds along the northern coast of Florida with seas building to 8 ft. A cold front enters the area from the central Atlantic near 31N56W and extends to Hispaniola with the tail end stalled and weakening. Scattered thunderstorms are noted along the front. Winds are moderate behind the front with rough seas prevailing east of the Bahamas and approaching 13 ft north of 27N. Conditions are more favorable ahead of the front with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. Farther east, ridging from the Azores high dominates the pattern with winds generally moderate to fresh from the E to NE. Moderate seas in the 6 to 8 ft range prevail across the central and eastern Atlantic. For the forecast W of 65W, the front will remain nearly stationary from 25N65W to Haiti on Mon, then move across the SE waters Tue through Wed while dissipating. Large seas behind the front will persist E of the Bahamas through Mon night. An increase in the pressure gradient across the region is expected to bring fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas toward the end of the week. $$ FLYNN