000
AXNT20 KNHC 301615
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1615 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N13W. The ITCZ continues from 04N13W 
to 03N31W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed on
satellite imagery within 250 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ
between the coast of Africa and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An expansive 1026 mb high pressure system positioned about 100 nm
south of the mouth of the Mississippi River dominates the Gulf of
Mexico, maintaining dry weather conditions across the basin. 
Surface observations and latest scatterometer satellite data show 
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevailing in the Gulf, 
except for fresh N winds off SW Florida and the Florida Straits. 
Seas of 4-7 ft are found S of 26N, with the highest seas occurring
in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 2-4 ft are noted N of 26N.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate most of the Gulf region
through Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop over 
the western Gulf tonight into Mon morning. A frontal system will 
then move off the Texas coast by Mon night and track across the 
northern Gulf through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will shift 
eastward with the system across the central and east Gulf through
Wed with increasing seas. A cold front is expected to push off 
the Texas coast on Thu bringing strong to gale force northerly
winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary cold front extends from the Tiburon peninsula of
Haiti to the central Mosquito Coast of Nicaragua. The arctic blast
behind the frontal boundary brought well below normal temperatures
for the NW Caribbean. Santo Domingo, in central Cuba, reported a 
low of 44.5F. A dry airmass dominates the Caribbean Sea promoting 
fairly tranquil weather conditions. Surface observations and 
recent satellite-derived wind data depict fresh to strong N-NE 
winds in the NW Caribbean Sea, while fresh trades are noted
offshore NW Colombia and gentle to moderate trades are found in 
the rest of the basin. Seas of 5-8 ft are present behind the 
frontal boundary, with the highest seas occurring between Honduras
and Jamaica. Seas of 2-5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean 
Sea.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from Haiti to near Bluefields,
Nicaragua. The front is forecast to weaken by Mon. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse across the Windward Passage at night through Tue
night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N60W and
continues to northern Haiti. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen on satellite imagery ahead of the frontal
boundary, mainly N of 23N. Recent scatterometer satellite data
indicate that fresh to locally strong NW winds are occurring
behind the frontal boundary. Seas of 10-16 ft are found behind 
the front, mainly N of 23N and E of 77W. Ahead of the front, seas 
of 6-10 ft are present.

The other feature of interest is a 1019 mb low pressure near
the Canary Islands embedded in a plume of Saharan dust that
envelops the archipelago, Madeira, NW Africa and even extends into
the Iberian peninsula. Strong to near gale-force winds are
occurring near the coast of Morocco with seas up to 7 ft. Farther
west, another weak low pressure is located near 29N23W and it is
producing some showers north of the center. A 1039 mb high
pressure system positioned near 46N22W extends southwestward over
the rest of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The 
pressure gradient between this ridge north of the Azores and lower
pressures in the deep tropics and NE South America result in a 
large region of fresh to localized strong winds, extending from 4N
to 26N and east of 50W. Seas in this area are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere 
in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.
 
For the forecast, a cold front stretches from 31N60W to Haiti. Fresh to
strong winds and large seas persist in the wake of the front. As 
the front progresses eastward today, winds will continue to diminish
and become gentle to moderate by this afternoon. Large seas will 
persist E of the Bahamas through Mon night. 

$$
DELGADO