000
AXNT20 KNHC 301042
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 05N08W to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W to 02N27W to
00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N
along the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1027 mb high pressure is centered in the NW Gulf near 27N93W. No
significant convection is noted. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
across the basin with fresh to locally strong winds in the SE 
Gulf. Buoys indicate seas range 2-4 ft in the northern Gulf with 
5-7 ft in the eastern and southern Gulf. 

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate most of the Gulf 
region through Tue. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the Gulf of Mexico today. Fresh to strong southerly winds will 
develop over the western Gulf tonight into Mon morning. A frontal 
system will then move off the Texas coast by Mon night and track 
across the northern Gulf through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will 
shift eastward with the system across the north-central and 
northeast Gulf through Wed with increasing seas. A cold front is 
expected to push off the Texas coast on Thu and bring strong 
northerly winds across the NW Gulf. Gale force winds are possible 
along the coast of Mexico.


...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The cold front extends across the NW Caribbean from Haiti to
northern Nicaragua. Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail across
the NW basin behind the front with seas 8-10 ft. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are noted along the front. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail elsewhere with no significant convection. Outside 
of the NW Caribbean, seas range 3-5 ft. 

For the forecast, the front will continue pushing southeast 
across the NW basin, reaching from Haiti to southern Nicaragua 
tonight and weaken by Mon. Fresh to locally strong winds will 
pulse across the Windward Passage and north of Colombia Tue 
through Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from 31N65W to eastern Cuba. Scattered
moderate convection is along the front from 23N to 30N between 58W
to 67W. Fresh to strong winds continue to prevail behind the front
N of 29N with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere along the front.
Seas continue to range 12-18 ft N of 25N between 62W and 76W. Seas
up to 8 ft continue to propagate near the Bahamas. High pressure
extends across the central Atlantic anchored by a 1038 mb high
north of the Azores. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the
central basin with seas 5-9 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a 1019 mb
low is analyzed near 29N23W, about 250 nm W of the Canary Islands.
Fresh winds are noted west of the low with seas to 7 ft. Isolated
thunderstorms are noted within 50 nm of the low. 
 
For the forecast, as the front progresses eastward today, winds 
will continue to diminish and become gentle to moderate by this 
afternoon. Large seas will persist E of the Bahamas through Mon 
night. 

$$
AReinhart