587 AXNT20 KNHC 291054 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jan 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong cold front continues to push away from the Gulf of Mexico. Gale- force winds along the offshore of Veracruz, with sea heights ranging from 8-13 ft. Strong winds with frequent gusts to gale force continue across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. These conditions will end this afternoon, with marine conditions improving by tonight. Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml, for more details. Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: The strong cold front stretches from 31N74W to the central Bahamas to the eastern Cuba coast near 21N76W. Overnight scatterometer showed gale-force winds behind the front with strong winds on either side of the front. Seas range 12-15 ft behind the front. A squall line is moving ahead of the front from 24N to 31N between 67W and 74W. Gale force winds are expected to continue N of 27N through tonight with seas building to near 20 ft. Conditions will begin to improve late tonight into Sun morning as winds become gentle to moderate across the area. Higher seas will continue through Mon, and subside by Tue. Please, read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W to 05N25W. The ITCZ is not distinguishable at the moment. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along and south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N between 10W and 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a gale- force wind warning. As high pressure continues to build across the basin, dry conditions prevail. Buoys are reporting 4-7 ft seas across the NW Gulf of Mexico. Seas up to 12-14 ft are occurring in the southern and eastern Gulf with the highest winds. For the forecast, gale force winds are expected to continue along the Veracruz coast through this morning as the cold front moves away from the basin. Seas will also continue to range from 12-15 ft near the strongest winds. The central and eastern Gulf of Mexico can expect frequent gusts to gale force through this morning with rough seas. Marine conditions will improve later today into tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off the south Texas and northern Mexico coast Sun night into Mon. A frontal system will then move off the Texas coast by Mon night and track across the northern Gulf through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front continues to push southward across the NW Caribbean, stretching from the eastern Cuba coast near 20N77W to the northern Belize coast near 17N88W. Strong winds with seas 8-10 ft are moving across the Yucatan Channel southward toward the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong winds are occurring along the Colombia coast with gentle to moderate winds across the eastern and central Caribbean. Outside of the NW Caribbean, seas range 4 to 6 ft across the basin. No significant convection is occurring at this time. For the forecast, the cold front will stretch from the Windward Passage to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua tonight and from Haiti to southern Nicaragua by Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will continue to spread across the NW basin with 8-10 ft seas as the front pushes southward during the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse across the Windward Passage through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about a gale-force wind warning and accompanying sea heights that are related to a cold front. Outside of the western Atlantic, a 1015 mb low is located near 25N58W with a trough along the low from 20N59W to 31N56W. Another trough is analyzed from 14N46W to 23N47W with isolated thunderstorms occurring about 200 nm east of it. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the central Atlantic with seas 5-8 ft. High pressure extends across the eastern Atlantic with gentle to moderate winds and seas 5-8 ft. For the forecast, as the cold front continues to push eastward today, gale force winds will continue N of 27N with seas building to 16-20 ft. The gale force winds will end by tonight along with the widespread fresh to strong winds. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail on Sun. Large seas will persist E of the Bahamas through early next week. $$ AReinhart