000 AXNT20 KNHC 281803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jan 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning: A strong cold front currently over the central Gulf will move quickly southward through tonight. Near-gale to gale winds will develop behind the front offshore NE Mexico later this afternoon and then spread southward to offshore Veracruz early this evening. Seas are expected to rise and reach 9 to 11 ft late this afternoon, then peak between 13 and 15 ft tonight. Marine conditions should gradually improve on Sat. Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: The aforementioned cold front will also move off the N Florida/Georgia coast into the Atlantic waters this afternoon, bringing strong to near-gale winds to the waters offshore the SE U.S. this evening. Winds will increase to gale force by late tonight. Seas are going to build and reach 11 to 13 ft late tonight, 13 to 16 ft Sat morning and then even higher at 16 to 19 ft by Sat afternoon. Winds should start to decrease Sat night, then the seas will follow on Sun. Please read the latest Offshore Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml, for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains over central Africa. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 04N16W to 01N30W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 06N between 15W to 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on a Gale Warning. A strong cold front extends west-southwestward from central Florida across the central Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Extensive cloudiness and scattered showers are occurring near and N of the front to the Gulf States. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale northerly winds are seen behind the front across the N Gulf. Seas are 7 to 10 ft over the NW Gulf, and 6 to 8 ft for the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present over the S Gulf. For the forecast, the strong cold front will move quickly across the Gulf waters through this evening. It will bring gale force winds and building seas of 12-15 ft offshore NE Mexico this afternoon and offshore Veracruz by this evening. The central and E Gulf can expect frequent gusts to gale force this afternoon through Sat morning with rough seas. The front will exit the basin by tonight. Marine conditions will improve by Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough reaching westward from W Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula is producing scattered showers across the Yucatan Channel. Convergent trade winds are causing similar conditions over the Lesser Antilles, and Venezuela coastal waters. Surface ridging is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft over the NW basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE winds with seas at 6 to 8 ft exist near the Colombia coast. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades are expected in the S central Caribbean with mainly moderate trades elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight reaching from E Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sat morning, and from Haiti to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua by Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas of 8 to 10 ft will follow the front with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to locally strong winds can be expected over the Windward Passage Sun through early Tue behind the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above on a Gale Warning. A cold front stretches west-southwestward from just E of Bermuda across 31N64W to 29N70W, then continues as a stationary front to a 1012 mb low N of the Bahamas at 28N78W. A surface trough then extends southward from this low to W Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident near these features N of 26N between 62W and the Florida-Georgia coast. A weak 1018 mb low over the central Atlantic near 24N56W is generating scattered showers N of 23N between 55W and 60W. An upper-level low near 22N43W is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 18N to 27N between 39W and 45W. Aided by divergent flow aloft, a surface trough near 6N48W is creating scattered moderate convection from the Equator to 07N between 34W and French Guinea/Brazil coast. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are present near the stationary/cold front, N of 28N between 63W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE trades with seas at 6 to 8 ft dominate N of 05N between the African coast and 52W. Light to gentle winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds are N of the frontal boundary. The front will lift northward today as the low pressure moves NE. The attendant cold front will reach from 31N76W to S Florida by this evening, and from 31N70W to E Cuba by Sat morning. Strong to gale force winds and building seas of 16 to 20 ft are expected behind the cold front. $$ Chan