000 AXNT20 KNHC 272227 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jan 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. Updated the last three sections due to technical issues earlier ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri morning, bringing strong to near-gale force winds. It will then move quickly southeastward across the entire Gulf through Fri night, causing near-gale to gale winds for the W central Gulf by Fri noon; and then for the SW Gulf by late Fri afternoon. Seas will rise and reach 9 to 12 ft Fri afternoon, before peaking at 14 to 17 ft by Fri evening. Atlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned cold front will also exit into the Atlantic from the southeast US Fri morning. A low pressure is going to form along this front off the N Florida/Georgia coast by Fri evening, then track northward parallel to the US E coast while deepening. This will introduce near-gale to gale winds across the W central Atlantic waters by Sat morning. Anticipate building seas to reach 9 to 11 ft by Fri evening, then further to between 14 and 18 ft on Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains mostly over central Africa. An ITCZ runs westward from 02N23W through 01N40W to near the French Guinea-Brazil border at 03N45W. Scattered moderate convection is present from the Equator to 04N between 23W to 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning. A surface trough reaches westward from offshore of Tampa, Florida to the NW Gulf. Another surface trough extends southwestward from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula. A third surface trough is near the E coast of Mexico near 22N96W. These features are triggering scattered showers across much of the Gulf. Gentle with locally moderate NE to ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate the entire Gulf. For the forecast, both surface troughs across the Gulf will dissipate by tonight. A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, then race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near-gale force winds to much of the basin through Sat. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico Fri afternoon and spread S to offshore Veracruz Fri night. Seas will range between 10 and 15 ft within the strongest winds. Gales will diminish Sat, with slowly improving conditions by the start of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Modest trade-wind disturbances are producing scattered showers over the W central basin, and SE basin including the Windward Islands. A 1018 mb high near the Isla de Pinos is promoting light to gentle winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft over the NW basin. Fresh to strong NE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present for the S central basin, N of Colombia. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore Colombia tonight, with mainly moderate trades expected elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Sat and the SW Caribbean by late Sat, bringing fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas to the basin through the weekend. Expect fresh to locally strong winds over the Windward Passage Sun into Mon behind the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning. A cold front curves west-southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N68W to 30N70W, then continues as a stationary front across central Florida. Farther S, a 1014 mb low is persisting near the NW Bahamas at 27N76W. These features are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 25N between 67W and Florida. For the central Atlantic, a weakening stationary front near 28N60W along with a modest 1017 mb low near 25N51W are sustaining scattered showers N of 22N between 47W and 63W. Farther E, a robust upper-level low near 24N43W is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms from 15N to 29N between 37W and 44W. To the S, convergent trades near the southern extent of a surge are triggering scattered moderate convection from 04N to 10N between 30W and 50W. Strong upper-level winds are streaming widespread cirrus near the Cabo Verde Islands from 10N to 22N between the African coast and 34W. Fresh to strong NE winds with seas at 7 to 10 ft are found N of the stationary/cold front, N of 29N between 70W and the N Florida-Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 7 to 11 ft are evident N of 7N between 20W and 50W. Fresh to strong trades with 7 to 9-ft seas are present from the Equator to 07N between 25W and 52W. Light to gentle with locally moderate winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold/stationary front should begin to weaken this evening, with strong winds persisting on the north side of the boundary. This boundary will gradually dissipate over night, with winds gradually diminishing. Low pressure between Florida and Bermuda will move NE of the area by Fri. As it does, a strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. and bring strong to near-gale force winds to much of the basin Fri night/Sat. Gale winds are likely N of 27N Sat, with seas ranging between 10 and 17 ft. Both winds and seas should steadily subside on Sun. $$ Chan