715 AXNT20 KNHC 270917 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jan 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the NW Gulf Fri morning, then race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale force winds to much of the basin through Sat. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico Fri afternoon and spread S to offshore Veracruz Fri night. Seas of 12 to 18 ft can be expected in the area of gale force winds. Gales will diminish Sat, with slowly improving conditions by the start of next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from near the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 03N27W. The ITCZ continues from 03N27W to 03N45W. A surface rough extends from 10N39W to 04N42W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 04N to 14N between 29W to 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for details on gales that will develop in the western Gulf Fri into Sat. A weakening stationary front is noted from near Sarasota, Florida, to offshore the Texas coast. No convection is associated with this front, and convection previously associated with a surface trough extending from the Florida Straights to the Yucatan Peninsula has dissipated overnight. Another weak surface trough has developed in the SW Gulf. Winds are NE across the basin, ranging from moderate to fresh in the NE Gulf to light to gentle in the SW Gulf, W of the surface trough. Seas of 5 to 8 ft and subsiding in the NE Gulf, with 3 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the stationary front and surface troughs will dissipate by tonight, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the Texas coast early Friday. This front will race through the basin by Fri night, bringing strong to near gale force winds to much of the basin through Sat. Gales will develop offshore NE Mexico Fri afternoon and spread S to offshore Veracruz Fri night. Gales will diminish Sat, with slowly improving conditions by the start of next week, as high pressure builds into the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection associated with a weakening surface trough in the Yucatan Channel has diminished overnight. Otherwise, mid-level anticyclonic flow covers the Caribbean Sea, leading to subsidence and relatively dry conditions across the basin. Low pressure at 1008 mb over Colombia combined with ridging which extends from north of the basin to across the NW Caribbean continues to support fresh to strong winds offshore of northern Colombia, along with seas of 6 to 8 ft, highest near 11.5N75W. Fresh NE winds are noted across the approach to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh trades cover the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, highest in the central Caribbean. Light to gentle variable winds are in the NW Caribbean under the ridging along with 2 to 4 ft seas, while gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, pulsing strong winds will prevail offshore Colombia through Fri night, with mainly moderate trades expected elsewhere. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by Fri night and southwest Caribbean by late Sat, and bring fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building seas through the weekend. Expect fresh to locally strong winds over the Windward Passage Sun into Mon behind the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N71W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Ahead of this front, a surface through stretches from 28N71W to the Florida Straits. Weak low pressure previously along this trough in the NW Bahamas has dissipated. No convection is associated with either of these features. N of the front, mainly fresh NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. S of the front, light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft area ongoing. A 1019 mb high pressure centered near 27N67W is aiding in these tranquil conditions. Farther E, 1017 mb low pressure has formed around 30N59W, with a stalled front extending S from the low center to about 24N64W. A weak trough continues S of this to N of Puerto Rico. Little in the way of convection nor enhanced winds are associated with these features. Another high pressure, of 1021 mb, is centered near 30N53W, with low pressure of 1015 mb centered near 24N50W inducing fresh mainly E to SE winds N and E of the center. An associated surface trough along 50W extends from 18N to 28N. Dry air encompassing this low and trough is inhibiting signficant convection at this time. Seas E of 50W and N of 23N are 8 to 11 ft. To the south, moderate to fresh trades prevail with seas of 5 to 8 ft, highest toward the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 65W, a stationary front along 29N will dissipate by tonight, with associated winds diminishing. Low pressure will develop between Florida and Bermuda later today, then move N of the area by Fri. As it does, a strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. and bring strong to near gale force winds to much of the basin Fri night into the weekend. Gales are likely N of 27N Sat. $$ KONARIK