000 AXNT20 KNHC 250925 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jan 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends along the S coast of western Africa along 05N, then enters the Atlantic off Liberia at 05N09W and continues to 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W to 02N22W to the equator near 39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 10N between 17W and 32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1010 mb low pressure center is noted in the NW Gulf near 27N92W. A stationary front extends ENE from the low to near the mouth of the Mississippi River and continues to near Apalachicola , Florida. A cold front stretches SE from the low to just S of Tampico, Mexico. Then, a surface trough extends ESE from the low across the Gulf, reaching as far E as near Tampa Bay. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present N and E of the low, mainly N of the surface trough, over much of the north- central and NE Gulf of Mexico. To the NW of the low, strong NW winds have developed, while E of the low, moderate to fresh S winds prevail. North of the stationary front, portions of the far northern Gulf are experiencing fresh ENE winds. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are occurring in the strong winds NW of the low, with 3 to 5 ft seas across the basin. Elsewhere across the Gulf of Mexico, a surface trough has moved W offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, although no significant weather is being induced by this features. High pressure over the eastern Florida Peninsula continues to weaken and move E, reducing its influence on Gulf weather. For the forecast, the low pressure in the NW Gulf will move across the northern and eastern Gulf through Wed. This low and its associated cold front will be strong to near gale-force winds,higher seas, and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure will bring more tranquil conditions Wed night through Thu night. Another cold front is forecast to move into the Gulf Fri, and will likely bring strong to possibly gale conditions to portions of the western Gulf Fri night and Sat, along with building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong winds continue within 90 nm of the Colombian coast, due to the tight gradient between high pressure north of the basin and a 1007 mb low over northern Colombia, N of Bogota. Seas are building in the area of strong winds, currently at 8 ft. No other significant surface features are noted across the basin, and no significant convection is occurring. Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere. Away from the higher seas near Colombia, seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombian will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Generally gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. A cold front is likely to approach the NW Caribbean Thu night, then dissipate by the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1012 mb low pressure located near 26N36W is producing near gale force E winds on the N side of the center to 29N, between 34W and 40W. Seas of 8 to 14 ft have been generated by these winds. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 20N to 28N between 29W and 37W. The low will continue to move west over the next day or two while weakening, and although some strong winds will continue, near-gale conditions should end later today. Another low pressure, this one 1010 mb, is centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda. A warm front extends ENE from the low along 30N, before transitioning to a cold front N of 31N60W. A cold front extends SW from the low through the central Bahamas. Finally, a pre-frontal trough extends from S of Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos Islands. This combination of features is leading to a broad area of moderate convection, N of 27N, between 55W and 68W. N and E of the low, extending to 58W, fresh E winds prevail, with for the remainder of the basin N of 20N and W of 50W, gentle to moderate winds dominate. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across this same area, except 3 ft or less inside the Bahamas. Between the two lows, a couple of weak surface troughs have dissipated overnight, allowing for ridging from high pressure centered over the Azores to dominate much of the area. Mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail, with some fresh NE winds between and including the Cabo Verde and Canary Islands. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, the low pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas will move NE out of the area today. The trailing cold will gradually slide east into late week, while another cold front moves southward down the east coast of the U.S. Wed into Thu. Strong N winds can be expected behind this front. Low pressure will move off the South Florida coast Wed night, and winds from the low combined with the aforementioned cold front may near gale levels Thu into Fri. Yet another stronger cold front is expected to emerge off the Florida coast Fri night, bringing another round of strong to near gale- force winds. $$ KONARIK