459 AXNT20 KNHC 241651 TWDAT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 241202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jan 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. SPECIAL FEATURES A strong 1017 mb low pressure that resides along a robust surface trough extending from 28N27W to 12N41W is supporting gale-force winds as of 15Z in the METEO-FRANCE forecast area of CAPE VERDE. These winds have generated swell that is causing seas of 7 to 9 ft to reach as far west as 40W. In addition, a broad area of scattered moderate convection is observed on satellite imagery from 17N to 28N, east of 36W to the W African coast. The winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force at 25/0000 UTC. Please, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, that is on the website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/m etarea2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends south of the African Continent along 03N to 03W. The ITCZ continues near 03N03W to 05N14W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 10W and 28W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed near Corpus Christi, Texas with an attendant surface trough from 27N97W, extending southward across the far western Gulf, 50 nm offshore the Mexican coast. Fresh southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail east of the trough to 91W and S of 27N. Scattered moderate convection can be found within 120 nm of the western Gulf Coast, N of 22N and W of 93W. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a 1018 mb high pressure centered just offshore Louisiana near 29N92W, bringing gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned low pressure near the Texas coast will move E across the northern Gulf through Tue night. This low and its associated cold front will bring strong winds, higher seas, and thunderstorms to the region. High pressure will bring more tranquil conditions Wed night through Thu, but another cold front is forecast to move into the Gulf Fri, and this may bring gales to portions of the SW Gulf starting Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA Strong winds continue within 90 nm of the Colombian coast, due to the tight gradient between high pressure N of the basin and a 1008 mb low over N Colombia. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted in this region. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate to fresh NE to E trades dominate, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, and no convection noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombia will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Fri night. Generally gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features sections for information on the Gale Warning E of 35W. A stationary front extends from 31N62W to a 1011mb low pressure near 26N72W to 23N77W. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front from 30N60W to 24N70W. Fresh to locally strong SW to S winds are observed behind the front N of 31N and within 180 nm of the prefrontal boundary, N of 27N, where seas are 8 to 12 ft and scattered moderate convection is also noted. Otherwise, winds are generally moderate with seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail W of 50W. Farther E, across the central and tropical Atlantic, mainly moderate trades dominate with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 65W, the low that is along the stationary front that extends from S of Bermuda is forecast to lift NE and out of the area Tue, as the front dissipates. Another low pressure will move offshore FL Tue night, with strong to near gale-force northerly winds likely behind its associated cold front Wed night and Thu. $$ Nepaul