000 AXNT20 KNHC 230527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jan 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing winds to gale force offshore Colombia through this evening. Sea heights in the Colombian Basin will continue to range from 8 to 11 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will weaken, allowing for gales to end Sun, although strong winds will continue in the south-central basin through the middle of next week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N25W to 06N37W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 16W and 29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is building south through the western Gulf in the wake of a slow-moving cold front that stretches from Key West, Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. A recent satellite scatterometer pass found ongoing fresh to strong NE winds behind the front, except in the northeastern Gulf, flow is mainly moderate. The strongest flow is around a surface trough in the western Gulf, stretching from the southern tip of Texas to the central bay of Campeche. Seas in this region range from 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE of the area tonight. Fresh N winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will improve into Sun night as high pressure builds over the region. The next cold front and associated low pressure is likely to emerge off the Texas coast Mon night then cross the northern Gulf into the middle of next week. Strong winds and higher seas are possible over portions of the northern Gulf in association with this low. Winds may reach near gale-force over the north central Gulf Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the gale warning off the coast of Colombia. Outside of the Colombian Basin, a recent satellite scatterometer pass revealed moderate to fresh easterly trades persisting throughout the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas reported by buoys. Conditions continue to be more favorable in the NW Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support strong to gale conditions offshore Colombia tonight, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere in the south-central Caribbean through early next week. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean tonight, stall from western Cuba to Belize Sun, then dissipate Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western subtropical Atlantic from 31N68W to the Florida Keys, bringing moderate to fresh N winds and 6 to 9 ft seas behind the front. A satellite scatterometer pass notes mainly fresh breezes between Florida and the Bahamas. A ridge ahead of the front allows for mainly gentle to moderate return flow and 4 to 6 ft seas for the remainder of the basin west of 65W. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move slowly SE through Tue, then stall over eastern portions of the area. Behind the front, fresh to locally strong N winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft can be expected into Sun, before the front weakens and conditions improve. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore the SE U.S. coast Tue night and may bring strong winds behind in by Wed night. Farther east, a mid-upper level trough is generating scattered moderate convection from 15N to 20N between 31W and 41W. Otherwise, NE winds are moderate to fresh west of 40W and mainly moderate east of 40W with 6 to 8 ft seas across the basin. $$ MORA