000 AXNT20 KNHC 222351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jan 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support pulsing winds to gale force offshore Colombia through this evening. Sea heights in the Colombian Basin will continue to range from 8 to 11 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will weaken, allowing for gales to end Sun, although strong winds will continue in the south-central basin through the middle of next week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends along the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N29W to the coast of Brazil near 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and north of the ITCZ in the central Atlantic from 05N to 16N between 29W and 36W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is building south through the western Gulf in the wake of a slow moving cold front that stretches from Marco Island, Florida into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong northerly winds are observed behind the front with moderate to rough seas on an abating trend. Winds remain gentle to moderate ahead of the front in the SE Gulf, outside of thunderstorms. Isolated moderate convection is noted along the front in the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is observed along a pre-frontal trough in the Florida Straits and north of NW Cuba. For the forecast, a cold front reaching from Marco Island, Florida to Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico will slowly move across the southeast Gulf and exit the basin tonight. Marine conditions will improve across the Gulf through Sun night as high pressure builds over the region. The next cold front, along with a possible associated low pressure, is forecast to emerge off the Texas coast by Mon night. This system may bring higher winds and seas to portions of the Gulf into the middle of next week as it crosses the basin, with winds reaching near-gale force over the north central Gulf Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the gale warning off the coast of Colombia. Outside of the Colombian Basin, a recent scatterometer satellite pass revealed moderate to fresh easterly trade winds throughout the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas reported by buoys. Conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean with a gentle breeze south of 18N to the coast of Honduras, slight seas and isolated weak convection is noted. For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support strong to gale conditions offshore Colombia tonight, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere in the south-central Caribbean into early next week. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weak cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean tonight, reach from Cuba to Belize Sun, then dissipate by Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the western subtropical Atlantic from 31N71W to the coast of Florida near West Palm Beach. Behind the front, buoys are reporting strong northerly winds with 7-10 ft seas. Ahead of the front, generally moderate to fresh winds prevail with seas of 4-6 ft. A line of thunderstorms is observed roughly 90nm ahead of the front along a pre-frontal trough. In the central Atlantic, a large area of moderate N swell is abating. A pair of surface troughs are causing scattered moderate convection from 15N to 25N between 39W and 45W. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move slowly SE through early next week, reaching from east of Bermuda through the Turks and Caicos Islands by Mon night. Behind the front, strong N winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft can be expected through tonight, before the front weakens and conditions improve. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore the SE U.S. coast late Tue. $$ Torres