000 AXNT20 KNHC 211653 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through tonight. Sea heights will build to a range from 8-12 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will weaken some, although fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-central basin through the middle of next week. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... High pressure building through the western Gulf northwest of a stationary boundary is leading to gales offshore Veracruz, Mexico this morning. Seas in this area have increased to 12 to 16 ft. Gales will spread south through the western Bay of Campeche and east to about 91W today. Very rough seas will continue in the southwestern Gulf, reaching up to 18 ft offshore Veracruz by tonight. As the boundary moves SE of the area, high pressure will settle in causing conditions to gradually improve overnight and through the weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends about 180 nm offshore Liberia to near 04N11W. The ITCZ continues from 04N11W to 04N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection extends 210 nm north of the ITCZ along the coast of Brazil and French Guiana. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary boundary stretches from from Cedar key, Florida to 25N90W and ends near Tabasco, Mexico. Winds are stronger north and particularly west of the boundary. Buoys are reporting a fresh to strong NE breeze and moderate to rough seas in the northern Gulf. The western Gulf remains under a gale force wind warning. Conditions are more favorable in the SE Gulf including the Florida Straits and Yucatan Channel with a gentle breeze and slight seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along and behind the front. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms will remain along and behind this boundary, with strong N winds behind the front. This front will exit the basin by late Sat. Gales over the western Gulf, offshore Tampico, in the wake of the front, will spread south and east today to offshore Veracruz and adjacent portions of the SW Gulf, until conditions improve later tonight as high pressure builds into the basin. The high will shift E Mon, allowing fresh to strong southerly flow to develop in the NW Gulf, ahead of another cold front that will move off Texas Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds will following this front as it moves through the eastern Gulf Tue into Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale warning for the Caribbean Sea. A high pressure ridge extending from the central north Atlantic towards the Greater Antilles is maintaining a gradient with a 1008 mb low pressure over Colombia. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong easterly flow across the majority of the central and eastern Caribbean with 6-8 ft seas. Strong to near gale force winds are observed throughout the Colombian Basin generating 8-12 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean with a gentle to moderate breeze and 2-4 ft seas reported. For the forecast, the strong pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through tonight. Seas will build with these winds. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trade winds will cover mainly the waters between 68W and 80W into the weekend. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW Caribbean by Sun morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the NW corner of the subtropical Atlantic from 31N77W into northeast Florida. Ahead of this front, high pressure dominates the majority of the western subtropical Atlantic with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and moderate seas west of 55W. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the NW Bahamas ahead of a surface trough. In the central Atlantic, a stationary boundary extends from 31N35W to 26N40W where a shear line continues to 24N50W. Northwest of these boundaries, scatterometer data confirmed strong NE winds with rough seas likely reaching 14 ft just west of the stationary boundary. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the shear line. The eastern Atlantic is dominated by moderate winds and seas. South of 20N, fresh trades and moderate to rough seas are observed from roughly 55W to the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 65W, a stationary front across northeast Florida will continue to move towards the southeast today, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Showers and some strong thunderstorms will also accompany this front, which will move SE through the basin through the weekend. High pressure in its wake will shift eastward through Tue as another cold front move across the waters NE of northern Florida Tue night. Fresh southerly winds will precede this front. $$ FLYNN