000 AXNT20 KNHC 211001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and Panama will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through tonight. Sea heights will build to a range from 8-12 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward over the weekend, the pressure gradient will weaken some, although fresh to strong winds will continue in the south-central basin through the middle of next week. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... High pressure building south through the western Gulf in the wake of a cold front is leading to gales offshore Tampico, Mexico, early this morning. Seas in this area have increased to 9 to 12 ft. Gales will spread south through the western Bay of Campeche and east to about 91W today, with seas reaching 12 to 16 ft, locally near 18 ft offshore Veracruz. As the cold front moves well SE of the area and the high settles in, conditions will gradually improve tonight into the weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mainly inland over Africa, extending about 120 nm offshore Liberia to near 06N13W. The ITCZ continues from 06N13W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. No convection is observed at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale warning for the Gulf of Mexico. A weak low pressure that had formed near the Florida Big Bend last evening has moved NE into Georgia. A cold front trails from this low from just N of Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are behind the boundary, with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along and within 120 nm behind the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, high pressure centered in the far SE Gulf is leading to mainly gentle winds and seas at or below 3 ft. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain along and behind this cold front, with strong N winds behind the front. This front will SE of the basin by late Sat. Gales over the western Gulf, offshore Tampico, in the wake of the front, will spread south and east today to offshore Veracruz and adjacent portions of the SW Gulf, until conditions improve later tonight as high pressure builds into the basin. The high will shift E Mon, allowing fresh to strong southerly flow to develop in the NW Gulf, ahead of another cold front that will move off Texas Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds will following this front as it moves through the eastern Gulf Tue into Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about a gale warning for the Caribbean Sea. Dry air subsidence from aloft supports fair weather over most of the basin. Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic waters is supporting fresh trade winds in the eastern Caribbean and fresh to strong winds in the south-central region where seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Sea heights are 5 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through at least tonight. Seas will build with these winds. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trade winds will cover mainly the waters between 68W and 80W into the weekend. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW Caribbean Sun morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates much of the western and central Atlantic waters. A surface trough extends along along 79W, just offshore the south Florida coast, and is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms along it. Farther east, a stalled and dissipated front is noted from 29N35W to 25N47W. Although no convection is associated with this front, a surface trough along 50W is creating scattered moderate convection clustered around 25N. In the eastern Atlantic, low pressure just W of the Canary Islands of 1008 mb is producing convection N of the area, with a benign surface trough extending S along 25W to around 21N. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring N of the dissipating stationary front, otherwise mainly moderate E flow dominates the basin. W of about 70W, winds are gentle and southerly. Decaying N swell E of the Lesser Antilles is leading to seas of 8 to 10 ft. Also, N of the dissipating stationary front, seas are 8 to 12 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 5 to 7 ft, except 2 to 4 ft W of 72W. For the forecast west of 65W, a cold front will move off the NE Florida coast this morning, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Showers and some strong thunderstorms will also accompany this front, which will move SE through the basin through the weekend. High pressure in its wake will shift eastward through Tue as another cold front move across the waters NE of northern Florida Tue night. Fresh southerly winds will precede this front. $$ KONARIK