000 AXNT20 KNHC 201751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jan 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and the Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1720 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning... The surface pressure gradient, between W Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and in Panama, will continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale force, in the south central Caribbean Sea, particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night. The sea heights will build to a range from 10-12 ft, with the fastest wind speeds. These marine conditions are expected tonight, and again on Friday night. ...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning... A cold front currently is moving through the Florida Panhandle, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the western sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the north of the line, from the Florida Big Bend to 23N98W at the coast of Mexico. The forecast is for the front to extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz in Mexico by tonight. A weak low pressure center is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary, in the central Gulf on Friday. The low pressure center will move across Florida quickly, into the western Atlantic Ocean on Saturday evening, pushing the cold front across the southeastern Gulf into Sunday morning. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front, in the western Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds are forecast in the west central Gulf, including in the Tampico Mexico area today and tonight. Gale-force winds also are expected in the SW Gulf of Mexico, including in the Veracruz Mexico region tonight and Fri. Large seas are expected with the fastest wind winds. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details about each gale-force wind situation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian at 04N, to 04N05W. The ITCZ continues from 04N05W to 04N22W 07N34W 06N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the area from 15N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the Gulf of Mexico, and the sea heights. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow covers the Gulf. Altimeter data and buoy observations indicate seas of 3-5 ft. A cold front extends from near Biloxi, Mississippi to 27N93W and to inland Mexico near 24N98W. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by tonight. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the central Gulf on Fri, and quickly move northeastward across Florida into the western Atlantic Sat evening pushing the cold front across the southeastern Gulf into Sun morning. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf. Gale force winds are forecast over the west-central Gulf, including the Tampico area today and tonight. Gale force winds are also expected over SW Gulf, including the Veracruz region tonight and Fri. Large seas are expected with the strongest winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the Caribbean Sea, and the sea heights. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the basin, producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Strong to gale force winds are in the south central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 5-7 ft are in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Moderate trade winds and seas of 3-5 5 ft are in the NW part of the basin. The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Seas will build with these winds. The coverage area of the fresh to strong trade winds has increased and will cover mainly the waters between 68W and 80W through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW Caribbean Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N42W to 26N48W and 25N53W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from 25N53W to 24N66W. Some rainshwers are along the frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure to the N supports fresh to strong N winds W of the front to about 50W. Seas of 8-11 ft follow the front. Fresh to strong winds and building seas of up to 13 ft are expected in the wake of the front through Fri. This system is forecast to dissipate in 24-36 hours. A 1006 mb low pressure center is just to the south of the Azores. A surface trough curves away from the low pressure center, through 26N22W and to 20N41W. Strong to gale force winds are in the NE quadrant of the low center. Some rainshower activity that is associated with this feature has been affecting the Madeira Islands. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across the tropical Atlantic, including the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail. High pressure located northeast of Bermuda will be in control of the weather pattern across the area today. The high will shift northeastward allowing for the next cold front to move offshore northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. Low pressure forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico will move into the western Atlantic Sat evening, then move across the northern forecast waters on Sun. $$ MT/JA