000 AXNT20 KNHC 201014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jan 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the W Atlantic and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale force across the south-central Caribbean, particularly within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia at night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with the strongest winds. These marine conditions are expected tonight and again Fri night. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front currently entering the NW Gulf will extend from SE Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas this morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by tonight. A weak low pressure is then forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the central Gulf on Fri. The low will move across Florida into the western Atlantic late Sat into Sat night dragging the cold front across the SE Gulf. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf today through Fri. Gale conditions are forecast over the west-central Gulf, including the Tampico area today and tonight. Gale force winds are also expected over SW Gulf, including the Veracruz region tonight and Fri. Building seas of 10-14 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Gale force winds may briefly occur near the low center on Fri. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough mainly remains over the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 18W and 29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the Special Features section above for more information. A cold front currently entering the NW Gulf will likely move across the Gulf region through Sat night. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is associated with the front. The remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of a ridge, that extends from a 1031 mb high pressure located NE of Bermuda across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is noted per scatterometer data across the Gulf while altimeter data and buoy observations indicate seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate across the Gulf waters beginning today as the aforementioned cold front moves across the region. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Refer to the Special Features section above for more details. A surface trough is analyzed from near Key West, Florida across western Cuba to near 19N84W. Recent scatterometer data show the wind shift associated with the trough. Low level clouds and possible showers are near the trough axis. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Other than the strong to gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present across the eastern Caribbean, with moderate trade winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft over the NW part of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure across the W Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing winds to minimal gale force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight and Fri night. Seas will build to 10-12 ft with these winds. The aerial extent of the fresh to strong trade winds has increased and will cover mainly the waters between 68W and 80W through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front is forecast to enter the far NW Caribbean on Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N42W to 25N55W where it becomes stationary to 23N65W. Some shower activity is along the frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the front and high pressure to the N supports fresh to strong N winds W of the front to about 50W. Seas of 8-11 ft follow the front. Fresh to strong winds and building seas of up to 13 ft are expected in the wake of the front through Fri. This system is forecast to dissipate in 24-36 hours. A low pressure of 1006 mb persist S of the Azores. A surface trough extends from the low center located near 32N26W to 30N21W to 22N25W to 20N42W. Strong to gale force winds are noted on the NE quadrant of the low center based on satellite derived wind data. Some shower activity associated with this feature is now affecting the Madeira Islands. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across the tropical Atlantic, including the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail. For the forecast W of 65W, high pressure located NE of Bermuda will be in control of the weather pattern across the area today. This system will move NE allowing the next cold front to move offshore northern Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. A low pressure forecast to develop along the frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to emerge into the western Atlantic late Sat into Sat night, then move across the northern forecast waters on Sun. $$ GR