000 AXNT20 KNHC 190559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jan 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Increased gradient between a 1025 mb high near Florida and a 1007 mb low over central Colombia will continue to support stronger winds off the Colombia coast the next few days. In particular, NE winds within 90 nm of the Colombian coast are expected to reach gale force late tonight, late Wed night and possibly late Thu night as well. Winds during the daytime hours should decrease slightly to between strong and near-gale force. Seas in this same area will peak between 10 and 12 ft during gale winds. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is anticipated to enter the NW Gulf on Thu morning, then move southeastward through Thu night. Northerly near-gale to gale winds will develop behind the front and impact the NW Gulf by noon Thu, and spread southward to the W central and SW Gulf Thu evening. Seas will peak between 12 and 14 ft during gale conditions. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains mostly over the African continent. An ITCZ extends westward from SW of the Liberia coast at 04N14W through 03N30W to near the French Guinea/Brazil border at 03N50W. From 02N to 07N, scattered moderate convection is present between 14W and 40W; numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen between 40W and 51W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for more information on a Gale Warning. A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb high over N Florida to the N Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh southerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen across the W Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail over the E Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the region through Wed. Fresh southerly return flow across the W Gulf will continue through Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas late Wed night. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Brownsville, Texas on Thu morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to near Veracruz, Mexico by Thu night. Strong northerly winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front over the W Gulf. Gale conditions are forecast over the W central and SW Gulf Thu through Fri. Then, the front is forecast to move slowly on Fri, and a low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary over the NE Gulf on Sat. The low is forecast to move NE into the W Atlantic dragging the cold front across the SE Gulf by Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for more information on a Gale Warning. A cold front extends southwestward from the central Atlantic to central Hispaniola, then continues as a shear line across Jamaica to the Costa Rica coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near and up to 100 nm NW of the cold front. Scattered showers are evident near and up to 80 nm NW of the shear line. A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Colombia coast and adjacent waters. A few trade-wind disturbances are causing scattered showers near the Venezuela coast, Windward Islands, Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong NE to ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft exist over the S central basin, near the Colombia coast. Gentle to moderate ENE trades with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient as mentioned in the Special Features section will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force across the S central Caribbean during night times through at least Wed night, along with 10 to 12-ft seas. The area of fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean will expand Wed and persist through Fri. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the N central Atlantic across 31N53W southwestward to Hispaniola. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 120 nm southeast of the front. Divergent flow S of a pronounced upper-level low near 1843W is coupling with convergent trade winds to produce scattered moderate convection from 07N to 13N between 32W and 44W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the basin. Ahead of the cold front, moderate to fresh southerly winds with seas of 9 to 11 ft are found N of 28N between 49W and 55W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are present behind the front N of 28N between 55W and 70W. However, persistent NW swell is sustaining seas at 8 to 12 ft N of 21N between 60W and 70W. Farther W, light to gentle winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft are found from the Bahamas northward between 70W and the Florid/Georgia coast. A 1024 mn high over the central Atlantic near 32N43W is supporting light to gentle with locally moderate winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft N of 22N between 34W and 49W. Farther E, Fresh to strong SE to SW to NW winds are generating 7 to 10-ft seas N of 27N between the NW African coast and 34W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are seen from 03N to 22N between the central African coast and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 65W, large seas in the wake of the front will continue to affect the waters N of 27N between 60W and 70W through tonight and will gradually subside from W to E on Wed. The front will become stationary over the SE waters tonight, then begin to lift N on Wed while dissipating. High pressure will follow the front. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore from N Florida on Fri, accompanied by fresh to strong winds. $$ Chan