000 AXNT20 KNHC 171759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jan 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... A cold front is along 31N70W 21N78W. The 17/1200 UTC forecast consists of: SW gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 28N to 31N between between 67W and 72W. These conditions are forecast to last for the next 24 hours or so. The cold front is forecast to move eastward by about 600 nm or so, during the next 24 hours. The conditions for the wind speeds and the sea heights will move eastward, with the cold front. The wind speeds will be slower, and less than gale-force, at 30 hours into the forecast period. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the east of the cold front. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details about the warning situation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N10W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 06N23W, 03N30W, 01N35W, and to the Equator along 44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure center that is in Mexico near 27N105W, to 24N96W in the west central Gulf of Mexico, to the Straits of Florida. Strong NW winds are within 140 nm of the west coast of Florida. Fresh winds cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Gentle winds cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 13 feet, from 29N southward from 90W eastward. The comparatively highest sea heights are off the NW coast of Cuba. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, from 29N northward from 90W eastward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet from 24N southward from 90W westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, from 90W westward. High pressure ridging over the far western Gulf dominates the basin. Fresh to strong NW winds will continue over the NE Gulf through midday before diminishing. Seas will subside gradually from W to E today, with seas under 12 ft in the SE Gulf by early afternoon. Fresh southerly return flow will set up across the western Gulf on Tue ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas Wed night and extend from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico Thu night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through the SE part of Cuba, along 21N at 77W/78W. The cold front continues to 19N80W, and it curves to the SE coastal areas of Nicaragua. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 13 feet to the northwest of the cold front. The only exception is from 19N northward between the cold front and 83W, where the sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet. The comparatively highest sea heights of 13 feet are near the NW coast of Cuba. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, in the remainder of the area, to the east of the cold front. Moderate to fresh winds span the entire Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the cold front. A surface ridge passes through 22N61W in the Atlantic Ocean, across Puerto Rico, to 16N71W, into the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated to widely scattered rainshowers, throughout the rest of the Caribbean Sea. A cold front extending from eastern Cuba near 21N78W to the Honduras/Nicaragua border near 15N83W will stall this afternoon and dissipate tonight. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 8-11 ft seas are noted behind the front. Those seas will subside tonight. Mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Then, fresh to strong winds are expected in the central Caribbean beginning on Tue as high pressure builds N of the area. Near gale force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia at night, Tue night through Thu night. Generally moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the current cold front, the gale-force wind warning for the Atlantic Ocean, the sea heights, and related precipitation. A second cold front passes through 31N42W, to 25N50W, to 20N59W. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 12 feet between 40W and 60W. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere from 20N southward between 40W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the cold front. A surface ridge passes through 31N56W to 23N61W, across Puerto Rico, to 16N71W in the Caribbean Sea. An eastern Atlantic Ocean 1009 mb low pressure center is near 30N27W. An occluded front curves away from the western periphery of the low pressure center, to 30N25W. A cold front continues from 30N25W to 26N26W and 22N30W. A surface trough curves through 21N to 26N, about 360 nm to the east and southeast of the cold front. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet, from 20N northward from 40W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet, elsewhere, from 20N southward from 40W eastward. Strong winds are from 24N northward between the Canary Islands and the occluded front/cold front. Moderate winds are from 20N northward between the western side of the 30N25W 22N30W cold front and 64W. Fresh winds are within 240 nm to 400 nm on either side of the line 09N23W 10N38W 13N49W 16N61W...within 240 nm on the eastern half of the line, and within 400 nm on the western half of the line. A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 26N41W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between the 31N42W 20N59W cold front, and the third cold front that is with the 30N27W 1009 mb low pressure center and occluded front. A cold front extends from 31N70W to the central Bahamas near 24N75W into eastern Cuba near 21N78W. Gale force winds will persist on either side of the front through this afternoon. The front will reach from 31N66W to eastern Cuba by this evening, and move across the SE waters on Tue, then begin to lift N on Wed while dissipating. Fresh to strong winds will continue to affect the waters N of 27N through Tue morning. Seas will subside gradually from W to E through mid-week. High pressure will follow the front. The next cold front is forecast to move offshore northern Florida Thu night. $$ mt/ah