000 AXNT20 KNHC 161045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jan 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0900 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula. A line of showers and thunderstorms is found ahead of the front, mainly north of 23N. Earlier scatterometer data showed NW winds of 30 to 40 kt behind the front while altimeter data captured seas to 18 ft in the north-central gulf. The frontal boundary is moving quickly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and will exit the basin this afternoon. Conditions will improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the region. Atlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned cold front will emerge off the Florida coast later this morning. Strong to near gale force south winds are impacting the northwest offshore waters this morning, and will rapidly increase to gale-force winds near sunrise. Near-gale to gale force winds behind the cold front will affect the waters north of about 27N through Mon afternoon. Seas greater than 12 ft will impact the region through Mon afternoon. Conditions will gradually improve late Mon into Tue morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the three warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W to near 02N17W. The ITCZ then continues from 02N17W to 00N30W to 02S45W. A few showers are noted off the coast of Africa, mainly from 01N to 05N and E of 16W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning. As of 0900 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula generating near gale to gale conditions across the basin. For the forecast, near gale to gale force NW winds will continue to follow the front through late this afternoon when the front is forecast to be already east of the basin. Trailing fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the eastern Gulf will gradually diminish through Mon morning. Aside from the hazardous conditions described above, scattered showers and thunderstorms accompany the front. Conditions are forecast to improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the region. A new cold front is forecast to emerge from the coast of Texas Wed night and extend from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico Thu night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh winds in the south-central Caribbean will increase to locally strong at night along Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu night. Seas will be in 5-7 ft range through Tue night and increase to 8-11 ft Wed through Thu night. Moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean will continue through Thu night with seas to 6 ft. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean this morning followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas. The front will extend from central Cuba to NE Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to weaken before dissipating Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for portions of the southwest Atlantic. High pressure ridging prevails over the western Atlantic E of 78W with light to gentle variable winds N of 22N. Northerly swell to 11 ft NE of the Bahamas will gradually subside today. A cold front will emerge off the coast of Florida this morning. Fresh to strong S winds affecting the offshore waters of Florida W of 76W will rapidly increase to gale force this morning. Near gale to gale force winds N of 27N will follow the front through Mon afternoon when the front is forecast to extend from 31N67W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Strong to near gale force winds will then continue to affect the northern waters through Tue morning. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW offshore waters Thu night. Otherwise, in the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N48W to 22N60W where it stalls and weakens to the Dominican Republic. Winds are light to gentle associated with this front, however northerly swell continue to support seas in the 8 to 15 ft. $$ Ramos