000 AXNT20 KNHC 150023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a triple point north of the area near 36N59W, south-southwest to 31N60W and to 20N71W, where a trough continues to across Haiti and to 18N74W. A second cold front associated with a complex 986 mb low pressure system producing storm-force winds, and that is located well to the east of the Carolina centered near 36N70W extends from the low to 31N68W to 25N72W and to along the coast of eastern Cuba at 21N76W. It continues as a trough southwest to the western Caribbean Sea. ASCAT data passes from during the day nicely captured a rather extensive area of west to northwest gale-force winds 25-35 kt north of 27N behind the second front to near 77W. Both buoy and altimeter data reveal seas of 10-15 ft within this area of gale-force winds. The ASCAT data passes also show strong to near gale-force south to southwest winds ahead of the first front north of 25N between 55W-64W. An area of embedded south- southwest 30-35 kt is noted north of 28N and between 58W-62W, with seas of 10-14 ft. Winds between the fronts are southwest to west 20-30 kt north of 24N, with seas of 8-12 ft. Mariners over these waters should be aware of very hazardous marine within the aforementioned described wind and seas areas. Atlantic Gale Warning: Marine conditions will briefly improve for the northwest waters on Sat ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun morning. Strong south winds will begin to impact the northwest offshore waters Sat night, with winds rapidly increasing to gale-force early Sun morning. Near-gale to gale force winds will affect the waters north of about 27N through Mon morning. Conditions will gradually improve late Tue, but prior to then, mariners are encouraged to monitor the latest forecasts and consider avoidance plans for Sat night into Sun. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to move over the NW Gulf early on Sat then quickly move southeastward exiting the eastern Gulf by Sun afternoon. Strong to gale-force northwest to north winds and very rough seas reaching the range of 10-16 ft will follow the front across much of the Gulf Sat through Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions will improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the region. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on all three warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea to near 04N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N29W to 05N40W and to 05N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the trough between 10W-14W and within 120 nm north of the trough between 10W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 24W-30W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 33W-37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning. A 1019 mb high over the south-central Gulf continues to dominate much of the Gulf. A trough is over the SW Gulf from near 21N95W to 18N94W. Isolated showers are possible east of the trough to 93W. Light to gentle winds with seas at 2-3 ft are over the western Gulf, while gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 3-4 ft dominate the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the 1019 mb high pressure will maintain the light to gentle anticyclonic flow pattern over the area through most of the night. Fresh southerly winds are forecast to begin late tonight across the western Gulf ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the basin by Sat morning. The front will exit the eastern Gulf by Sun afternoon. Strong to gale-force northwest to north winds and very rough seas will follow the front across much of the Gulf, Sat through Sun. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Conditions will improve on Mon as high pressure builds over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends southwestward from the western Atlantic across eastern Cuba and to the coast of Belize. Another trough is over Haiti and nearby Caribbean waters. These features are triggering isolated showers from Haiti westward across Jamaica to the Bay of Honduras. A rather weak gradient in place due to the frontal systems over the Atlantic is allowing for gentle to moderate winds across the area along with seas of 2-4 ft throughout. The exception is in the south-central Caribbean, where moderate to fresh winds are occurring. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are noted in the eastern section of the sea, while moderate northerly winds are present over the western section of the sea. Seas throughout are in the range of 3-4 ft. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds in the south- central Caribbean will increase to locally strong at night along Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela this weekend into next week. Winds in the eastern and central Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh Sat night and prevail through Wed night. Otherwise, a cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean on Sun morning followed by fresh to locally strong northwest winds and building seas. The front will extend from central Cuba to northeastern Honduras by Mon morning where it will start to weaken before dissipating Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details on two Gale Warnings. A cold front extends from 31N60W and to 20N71W, where a trough continues to across Haiti and to 18N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm east of the front north of 24N. A second cold front extends from near 31N68W to 25N72W, and to along the coast of eastern Cuba at 21N76W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north 30N within 300 nm west of the front. A third cold front curves southwestward from a 1009 mb low that is located over the far eastern Atlantic near 31N26W to 24N24W to 19N32W and to 21N40W. A pre-frontal trough extends from near 20N26W to 16N36W and to 17N49W. Isolated showers are along and within 60 nm north of the trough between 40W-49W. Outside the Gale Warning area N of 20N, fresh to strong with locally near-gale southerly winds and seas at 9 to 13 ft are evident between 50W-60W. Farther E, the Atlantic ridge is supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft N of 20N between 28W and 50W. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong southerly winds related to the low and cold front are present N of 23N between the Sahara/S Morocco coast and 28W. Gentle to moderate east-northeast trades and seas of 5-7 ft are from the Equator to 20N and between 27W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds with seas at 4-5 ft in a north to northeast swell continue over the rest of the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front that extends from near 31N68W to 25N72W and to along the coast of eastern Cuba at 21N76W will catch up with the front that extends from near 31N60W to 20N71W early on Sat. Gale-force west to northwest winds and very rough seas behind the the second front north of 27N, as described above under Special Features will continue will continue through tonight and diminish Sat as the front and trough move northeastward. Marine conditions will briefly improve for the northwest waters on Sat ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida early on Sun. morning. $$ Aguirre