881 AXNT20 KNHC 141035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure located to the NE of the Bahamas will combine with low pressure moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Explosive cyclogenesis is then expected through today as the system moves northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes. A cold front extending from the low pressure center will cross the subtropical waters of the SW N Atlantic today. Near gale-force westerly winds and rough seas will build today covering the area north of 27N between 58W and the coast of Florida, with areas of sustained gale force winds expected near and ahead of the frontal boundary. Winds will quickly decrease Sat while seas gradually abate through the weekend. A second strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun. Strong to gale-force winds are expected on either side of the front on Sun and Sun night north of 27N. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front associated with a very potent area of low pressure is forecast to move across the far NW Gulf Sat morning, then across the rest of the basin through Sun afternoon. A Gale Warning is now in effect for most of the western and northern Gulf waters for Sat and Sat night. Gale conditions are possible over some areas of the north-central and NE Gulf late Sat night into early Sun. Strong to near gale force winds will follow this front with gale force winds developing along the E Mexico offshore waters Sat and Sat night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gale Warning E of 35W: A low pressure of 1009 mb is centered near 29N26W with an occlusion wrapping around to the east. An earlier scatterometer pass revealed an area of gale force winds behind the occlusion near 28N24W. This low has been cut off from the jet stream and is expected to remain in the east Atlantic for several days with strong winds possible throughout the weekend. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/frandlarge /metarea2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea to 04N21W where the ITCZ continues through 04N33W to 02N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 105 nm either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for details. High pressure dominates the western half of the Gulf with light to gentle variable winds. The pressure gradient tightens in the eastern basin with winds increasing to moderate northerly in the central Gulf and fresh northwesterly in the eastern Gulf. Seas are mainly slight, building to moderate in the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds over the eastern half of the Gulf will continue through this morning. Southerly moderate to fresh winds are forecast to begin tonight across the western half of the basin ahead of a strong cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region by Sat morning. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will follow the front, increasing to gale-force along the eastern Mexico offshore waters Sat and Sat night. Gale force winds are briefly forecast for the NW and north-central Gulf Sat night. The front will move E of the area early Sun afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Low pressure in the western subtropical Atlantic has disrupted the climatological pressure gradient causing winds to decrease below average. Latest scatterometer and buoy data reveal mainly gentle to moderate trades in the central and eastern Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas. NW winds are moderate in the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic waters north of 27N between 58W-65W. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Low pressure of 1006 mb in the western Atlantic near 27N70W is extending a trough into the Windward Passage. West of this trough winds are fresh to strong from the northwest with 4-6 ft seas. East of the trough, scatterometer data revealed near gale to gale force southerly winds with 5-7 ft seas reported by buoys. Satellite data also reveals scattered moderate convection with embedded thunderstorm east of the trough. For the forecast west of 65W, a large area of low pressure is NE of the Bahamas with gale force winds currently affecting the NE offshore waters. This system will continue to bring gale force winds and building seas across the waters N of 27N tonight and Fri. A surface through associated with it will move across the SW N Atlantic waters through Fri. Marine conditions will briefly improve on Sat ahead of a cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun. Strong to gale force winds are expected on either side of the front on Sun and Sun night. In the central Atlantic, a stationary boundary extends from 31N40W to 28N56W. North of this feature, a scatterometer pass found a fresh to strong easterly breeze with altimeter data reporting rough seas of 9-12 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, a low pressure system near 29N28W is causing gale force winds. Refer to the Gale Warning East of 35W in the special features section above for details. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with moderate seas. $$ Ramos