000 AXNT20 KNHC 132355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure extending from the northern Caribbean to western Atlantic is moving northeast and will combine with low pressure moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight. Explosive cyclogenesis is then expected through Fri as the system continues northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes. A cold front extending from the low pressure center will cross the subtropical waters of the western Atlantic tonight into Fri. Near gale-force westerly winds and rough seas will build Fri covering the area north of 27N between 60W and the coast of Florida, with areas of sustained gale force winds expected near the frontal boundary. Winds will quickly decrease and seas gradually abate through the day Sat. A strong cold front is forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun. Strong to gale-force winds are expected on either side of the front on Sun and Sun night north of 27N. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico: A strong cold front associated with a very potent area of low pressure is forecast to move across the far NW Gulf early on Sat, then across the rest of the basin by early Sun evening. A Gale Warning is now in effect for most of the western and northern Gulf waters for Sat and Sat night. Gale conditions are possible over some areas of the north-central and NE Gulf late Sat night into early Sun. Strong west to northwest gale-force winds and building seas are expected behind the front, while gale-force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front north of about 27N. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent. It reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 11N16W and extends southwest to 05N21W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N30W to 04N40W and to 03N3N45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 04W-28W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-28W. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Latest ASCAT data shows fresh north to north winds continuing over the SW Gulf surrounding a surface trough. The strong winds are mainly confined to the west of 94W. A 1023 mb high pressure center off southern Texas is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow over the remainder of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft south of 25N and west of 85W, with relatively low seas of 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, a developing low pressure system E of Florida will support fresh NW winds over the eastern Gulf tonight into Fri morning. Southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf by late Fri ahead of a strong cold front forecast to move over NW Gulf region by Sat morning. Strong to gale force winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front Sat through Sun. Ahead of the front, outside the gale-force southerly winds north of 27N, will exist and are forecast to move southeast of the area by Sun afternoon. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad low pressure trough extending across Cuba has disrupted the pressure gradient causing the winds to decrease below average for January. Latest scatterometer and buoy data reveal mainly gentle to moderate trades east of 75W, except for moderate to fresh trades over the south-central waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds are over the NW Caribbean, influenced by the lower pressure north of the area. Mainly gentle southerly flow is over the southwestern Caribbean. Seas across the basin are in 3-5 ft range, except for lowers seas of 2-3 ft north of 18N and between 64W-80W For the forecast, no significant changes are expected. Moderate to fresh trade winds will remain over the south-central Caribbean through the upcoming weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Atlantic waters north of 27N between 58W-65W. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Low pressure of 1010 mb is in the vicinity of the central Bahamas near 25N75W. A trough extends from the low southwestward to across central Cuba. Another trough extends from the low analyzed northwestward to 31N76W. Latest scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate northerly winds south of 27N and west 75W. The data also shows northwest to north gentle to moderate winds north of 27N and west of 77W. Between 75W-65W, fresh to locally strong east-southeast winds are present from 27N-30N and light to moderate winds are south of 27N between 75W-65W. Seas of 6-10 ft are within the area of fresh to locally strong winds. Recent altimeter data indicates seas of 3-6 ft range elsewhere to the west of 65W. For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned area of low pressure will bring gale-force winds and building seas across the waters N of 27N tonight and Fri. The associated cold front will move across the SW N Atlantic late today through Fri. Marine conditions will improve on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off the coast of Florida on Sun. Strong to near-gale force winds are expected on either side of the front on Sun and Sun night. A large area of rain with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms is shifting eastward north of 24N between 65W and 74W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 22N to 24N between 65W-74W. Between 40W and 65W, a cold front extends from near 31N40W to 28N50W, then transitions to a stationary front to 28N55W to 28N60W to 27N65W. Fresh to strong northerly winds behind the cold front turn easterly behind the stationary front. Satellite imagery reveals rain along with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms shifting eastward north of 27N and between 40-65W. Ahead of the boundary, locally high pressure supports gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. Seas range from 6-8 ft west of 40W. Farther east, low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 29N28W. A cold front extends from an occlusion north of our area near 29N25W to 23N27W, where it begins to dissipate to 19N34W to 19N40W. A secondary cold front extends from the same low pressure system to 25N27W to 23N34W and northwest to north to near 28N37W. Fresh to strong northwest winds precede the secondary front with fresh to strong southwest winds between the second front and the leading cold front. Seas in this area are 8-11 ft range due to mainly a northwest swell. Areas of rain with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of the first front north 26N and east to near 22W. $$ Aguirre