000
AXNT20 KNHC 130959
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Jan 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure
extending from the northern Caribbean to western Atlantic
is moving northeast and will combine with low pressure 
moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thu. Explosive 
cyclogenesis is then expected through Fri as the system 
continues northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes. A cold front 
extending from the low pressure center will cross the 
subtropical waters of the western Atlantic late Thu into Fri. 
Near gale force westerly winds and rough seas will build Fri to 
dominate the area north of 27N between 60W and the coast of 
Florida with areas of sustained gale force winds expected near the
frontal boundary. Winds will quickly decrease and seas gradually 
abate through the day Sat.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 09N13W 
to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to the coast of Brazil 
near 02S40W. Scattered showers are noted within 30 nm of the ITCZ
between 27W and 31W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends across the western Gulf while a 1025 mb 
high pressure centered over Houston, Texas is gradually drifting 
east across the NW Gulf. The fresh to locally strong NW to N 
winds have diminished in the SW Gulf with recent observations 
indicating seas ranging between 4 to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate 
winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the ridge will gradually shift east and 
dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Southerly return flow will 
set up over the western Gulf by late Fri ahead of the next cold 
front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat. Fresh to strong 
winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. 
Gale conditions are possible off of Tampico, Mexico, by Sat 
evening, and near the Veracruz area by Sat night into Sun. 
Conditions will improve into next week as light and gentle winds 
return across the basin. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad low pressure trough extending across Cuba has disrupted 
the pressure gradient causing the winds to decrease below average
for January. Recent scatterometer, altimeter and buoy data reveal
mainly gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas across the 
majority of the Caribbean. A fresh NE breeze remains off the 
coast of Colombia with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, no significant changes expected. There are no 
Areas with significant convection across the basin. The fresh to 
strong trade winds near the coast of Colombia have diminished 
tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the end 
of the week and into the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are 
expected elsewhere across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 30N44W to 24N67W where a stationary
Front extends to 25N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the stationary front from 25N to 33N between 54W to 66W. 
North of the boundaries, fresh NE winds extend 120 nm, decreasing
to moderate farther north with 7-10 ft seas throughout the area. 
South of the boundaries, winds are gentle with 5-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 65W, the area of convection along the 
stationary front will continue today. Meanwhile, a large area 
of low pressure is expected to develop late today W of the 
stationary front. The associated cold front will move across 
the SW N Atlantic late Thu through Fri. Gale conditions are 
expected over the waters N of 27N ahead of the front late 
tonight into Fri. The next cold front will emerge off the coast 
of Florida Sun night. Strong to near gale force southerly winds 
are expected ahead of the front on Sun. 

Farther east, low pressure of 1007 mb is centered near 28N30W. An
occluded front wraps around the low-pressure center. Scatterometer
data has revealed fresh to strong winds within 180 nm of the low.
Seas in this area are in the 10 to 12 ft range. Seas greater than
8 ft are observed within 450 nm of the low. Gentle to moderate 
winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere.

$$
Torres