787 AXNT20 KNHC 130512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jan 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A broad area of low pressure extending from the northern Caribbean to the eastern Gulf of Mexico is moving northeast and will combine with low pressure moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thu. Explosive cyclogenesis is then expected through the day Fri as the system continues northeast toward the Canadian Maritimes. A cold front extending from the low pressure center will cross the subtropical waters of the western Atlantic late Thu into Fri. Near gale force westerly winds and rough seas will build Fri to dominate the area north of 27N between 60W and the coast of Florida with areas of sustained gale force winds expected near the frontal boundary. Winds will quickly decrease and seas gradually abate through the day Sat. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 05N19W. The ITCZ continues from 05N19W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered showers are noted within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 27W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the western Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds are noted in the SW Gulf of Mexico where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will diminish over the SW Gulf through the night. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf by late Fri ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Gale conditions are possible off of Tampico, Mexico, by Sat evening, and near the Veracruz area by Sat night into Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad low pressure trough extending across Cuba has disrupted the pressure gradient causing the winds to decrease below average for January. Recent scatterometer, altimeter and buoy data reveal mainly gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas across the majority of the Caribbean. A fresh NE breeze remains off the coast of Colombia with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, No significant changes expected. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are expected to elsewhere across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N45W to 27N56W where a shearline continues to the Turks and Caicos Islands. North of the boundaries, fresh NE winds extend 120 nm, decreasing to moderate farther north with 7-10 ft seas throughout the area. South of the boundaries, winds are gentle with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 65W, the shear line along 23N/24N will dissipate tonight as strong winds diminish over the Bahamas. A large area of low pressure is expected to form late Thu N of area. The associated cold front will move across the SW N Atlantic late Thu through Fri. Gale conditions are expected over the waters N of 27N ahead of the front through Fri. The next cold front will emerge off the coast of Florida Sun night. Strong to near gale force southerly winds are expected ahead of the front on Sun. Farther east, low pressure of 1008 mb is centered near 29N32W. An occluded front wraps around the low pressure center. Scatterometer data has revealed fresh to strong winds within 180 nm of the low. Seas in this area are in the 10 to 12 ft range. Seas greater than 8 ft are observed within 450 nm of the low. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. $$ FLYNN