451 AXNT20 KNHC 122046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to the coast of Brazil near 03S38W. Scattered showers are noted within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 17W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the western Gulf. High pressure prevails elsewhere. Fresh to strong NW-N winds prevail over the SW Gulf of Mexico, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will continue over the SW Gulf through this evening while diminishing. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf by late Fri ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Winds could reach gale force by Sat evening off Tampico, Mexico, and near the Veracruz area by Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient persists between high pressure north of the area and climatological low pressure over Colombia. Fresh to locally strong NE winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are noted within 90 nm of the coast of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades, and seas of 2-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh trade winds near the coast of Colombia will diminish by this afternoon, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the basin through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 30N51W to near 24N66W, then transitions to a stationary front and extends westward 81W within the Florida Straits. A recent satellite scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front with rough seas found in buoy observations. West of 70W, scatterometer depicts strong to near gale force NE winds behind the front. Scattered moderate convection remains within 120 nm south of the stationary front. Ahead of the front, the western Atlantic is dominated by gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front along 23N/24N will dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft in the wake of the front across the waters S of 27N will gradually diminish by tonight. A large area of low pressure is expected to form late Thu N of area. The associated cold front will move across the SW N Atlantic on Thu. As this system moves northeastward and strengthens, strong to near gale force winds are forecast to spread over a large area north of 24N W of 60W on Fri. The next cold front will emerge off the coast of Florida Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front on Sun. In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, an occluded front is wrapping around a 1009 mb low pressure center located near 30N33W. This occluded front enters the discussion area near 31N25W and extends a cold front to 21N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the occlusion. A scatterometer pass found strong northwesterly winds on the western periphery of the low pressure center where seas are likely 10 to 13 ft. 8 ft swell associated with this system extends as far south as 20N in the central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds dominate the remainder of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic with moderate sea heights. $$ AL