309 AXNT20 KNHC 121733 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from the coast of Guinea near 09N14W to near 04N19W. The ITCZ continues SW from this position, crossing the equator near 30W and continues to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered showers are noted within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 18W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong NW-N winds continue over the SW Gulf of Mexico west of a surface trough extending along 94/96W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the SW Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by moderate to fresh NE-E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will continue over the SW Gulf through this evening while diminishing. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through Fri. Southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf by late Fri ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sat. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. Winds could reach gale force by Sat evening off Tampico, Mexico, and near the Veracruz area by Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient persists between high pressure north of the area and semi-permanent low pressure over Colombia. A scatterometer satellite pass reveals this pattern is maintaining fresh NE winds within 90 nm of the coast of northern Colombia, as well as within the Yucatan Channel and Gulf of Honduras north of 18N. Elsewhere, scatterometer data found gentle to moderate trades. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin, except NE of Colombia seas are 6 to 8 ft and in the NW Caribbean seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, fresh trade winds near the coast of Colombia will diminish by this afternoon, then mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere across the basin through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 30N51W to near 24N66W, then transitions to a stationary front and extends westward 81W within the Florida Straits. A recent satellite scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front with rough seas found in buoy observations. West of 70W, scatterometer depicts strong to near gale force NE winds behind the front. Scattered moderate convection remains within 120 nm south of the stationary front. Ahead of the front, the western Atlantic is dominated by gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front along 23N/24N will dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft in the wake of the front across the waters S of 27N will gradually diminish by tonight. A large area of low pressure is expected to form late Thu N of area. The associated cold front will move across the SW N Atlantic on Thu. As this system moves northeastward and strengthens, strong to near gale force winds are forecast to spread over a large area north of 24N W of 60W on Fri. The next cold front will emerge off the coast of Florida Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected ahead of the front on Sun. In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, an occluded front is wrapping around a 1009 mb low pressure center located near 30N33W. This occluded front enters the discussion area near 31N25W and extends a cold front to 21N38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the occlusion. A scatterometer pass found strong northwesterly winds on the western periphery of the low pressure center where seas are likely 10 to 13 ft. 8 ft swell associated with this system extends as far south as 20N in the central Atlantic. Gentle to moderate NE-E winds dominate the remainder of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic with moderate sea heights. $$ Mora