000
AXNT20 KNHC 112100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
0005 UTC Wed Jan 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N14W to 02N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 02N20W to 04S36W. Scattered showers are noted in 
the vicinity of the boundary, mainly west of 30W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends off western Cuba to near 23N95W to the
Bay of Campeche. Winds over the western Gulf have diminished
below gale force. Strong to near gale force winds, and seas of 10
to 13 ft, are now west of the front and south of 21N. Locally 
strong winds, and seas of 8-9 ft, are found within 60 nm north 
of the front between 89W and 96W. Moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-8 ft, prevail elsewhere across the Gulf. 

For the forecast, conditions will improve across the Gulf of 
Mexico by Wed as the front weakens and pushes southeast of the 
area. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build over 
Gulf late this week, leading to gentle winds west of 90W. Fresh 
NW winds are expected in the eastern Gulf late Thu into early Fri
as low pressure forms east of Florida. The next cold front is 
expected to emerge off the Texas coast by Sat. Strong winds are 
expected behind this front, with gale force winds possible 
offshore Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure building in the wake
of a cold front in the western Atlantic and climatological low
pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds and
seas of 6-8 ft, over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail over the remainder of the
Caribbean. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong east to northeast winds will 
pulse in the south-central Caribbean through tonight, with fresh 
winds in the passages. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail across most of the basin Wed through Sun. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N60W to the central Bahamas to
western Cuba. Fresh to strong northerly winds are noted north of
26N and west of the front. Elsewhere west of 65W, gentle to 
moderate winds are observed. Seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail north of
27N and west of the front, with 5-6 ft seas elsewhere west of
65W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 30N26W to 22N37W to
25N47W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 8-12 ft, are noted 
north of the front. Elsewhere across the discussion waters, 
gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail. 

For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from 
near 24N65W to Havana Cuba early Wed, before becoming stationary.
Strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow the front 
through Wed, affecting the NW Bahamas. Winds will diminish Wed 
night as the front weakens. A large area of low pressure is 
expected to form by late Thu to the east of Florida. As this 
system moves northeastward and strengthens, expect strong to near
gale force winds to spread over a large area north of 24N Thu 
night through Fri night, with gale-force winds possible north of 
28N. The next cold front will emerge off the coast of Florida 
late this weekend.

$$
AL