000 AXNT20 KNHC 110019 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jan 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from south Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Gale- force winds prevail west of the front off the coast of Veracruz, Mexico. The gale- force winds are expected to spread southward, to the waters off Veracruz, Mexico by tonight. Conditions will improve across the Gulf waters by mid-week as the front pushes well southeast of the area. Seas of 12 to 14 ft will build within 120 nm of the Mexican coast behind the front, reaching 18 to 20 ft in the SW Gulf Mon night into Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the west coast of Africa from 05N09W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 06N37W to 05N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 10W and 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the special features section above for more on the gale warning over the western Gulf. Elsewhere, a cold front extends from south Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Aside from the gale force winds west of the front, strong winds prevail, with seas in the 6-8 ft range. East of the front, gentle winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, the gale force winds will continue offshore Tampico through this afternoon and move south to off Veracruz this evening through Tue morning, before diminishing Tue afternoon. Conditions will improve across the Gulf of Mexico by Wed as the front pushes well southeast of the area. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build over Gulf late this week, leading to gentle winds. The next cold front is likely to emerge off the Texas coast over the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the north central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the south central Caribbean and 5-7 ft over the north central Caribbean. Over the eastern Caribbean, seas of 4-6 ft prevail while seas in the 3-5 ft range prevail over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong east to northeast winds across the central Caribbean through Tue night, with fresh winds in the passages. Mainly moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Tue night, then likely push into the NW Caribbean into mid week, while dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate winds should then continue across most of the basin late this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N73W to south Florida. Fresh to strong winds are west of the front and within 90 nm east of the front north of 29N. Seas over this area are in the 5-7 ft range. Elsewhere west of 65W, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from 30N65W to the Florida Keys early Tue, and from 25N65W to the central Bahamas to western Cuba early Wed. Strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow the front through Wed, affecting the NW Bahamas. Winds will diminish Wed night as the front weakens. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure will form over Florida and the Bahamas on Thu. A large area of low pressure is expected to form by Thu night or early Fri as the system moves northeastward. This system is likely to cause strong to near gale force winds late this week over a large area north of 24N, with gale-force winds possible north of 29N. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N29W to 27N36W to 26N55W. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft prevail north of the front. Elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail. Over the tropical waters south of 20N, moderate winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. $$ AL