000
AXNT20 KNHC 081755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jan 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1530 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough extends across central Africa to end offshore W
of the Guinea-Bissau coast near 11N16W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found S of the trough near the Liberia
coast. An ITCZ reaches west-southwestward from W of the Sierra
Leone coast at 07N20W through 05N35W to N of Belem, Brazil. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted near and up to 80 nm N of
the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends west-northwestward from near Tampa to 
S of Pensacola, Florida at 29N86W, then continues as a warm front
to a low NW of Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and S of the warm front,
across the NW and N central Gulf. Fresh to strong southeasterly 
winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are also found over the NW and N 
central Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 
ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the warm should lift over the Gulf coast states
later this afternoon, while the stationary front will dissipate 
tonight. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will prevail 
across most of the Gulf this weekend ahead of the next cold front 
forecast to move off the Texas coast Sun night. Fresh to strong 
winds will follow the front through early next week, likely 
reaching gale force within 60 nm of Veracruz Mon night and Tue. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Tighter pressure gradient between lower pressure over N Colombia 
and the Atlantic ridge N of the basin continues to support a
trade-wind regime across the entire basin. Convergent trades are
triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the 
NW basin, from near the Mexico-Belize border eastward to the 
Cayman Islands. Moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly 
trades with seas at 7 to 9 ft persist across the S central 
basin, N of Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh easterly trades
and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will generate pulses of 
fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and the 
passages into early next week. Mainly moderate winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Moderate NE-E swell will impact the Tropical N Atlantic
waters into early next week before decaying.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from SE of Bermuda across 
31N61W to the NW Bahamas, then continues as a stationary front to 
S Florida. Scattered showers are evident near and up to 60 nm SE 
of this boundary. Convergent trades are producing scattered 
showers over the SE Bahamas. A mid to upper-level low SW of the 
Canary Islands near 26N26W is causing scattered moderate 
convection from 20N to 29N between the NW African coast and 33W. 
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection
in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft
are found near and N of the cold/stationary front. Over the NE
Atlantic, wind waves related to fresh to locally strong NE trades
along with a northerly swell are creating 10 to 15-ft seas N of
24N between the W Sahara-Morocco coast and 30W, including the
Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NE trades with seas at 8 to 11
ft are present farther W, N of 20N between 30W and 48W; and also
farther SW from 03N to 23N between 48W and the Lesser Antilles.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for
the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move SE across the
basin through the weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are 
expected in the wake of the front as high pressure builds toward 
the area. Seas will also build across the Bahamas, Florida 
Straits, and Windward Passage. Another cold front will move 
offshore Florida early Mon, then sink across the Bahamas through 
Tue night. Strong NE winds will likely follow this front. 

$$

Chan