000 AXNT20 KNHC 070602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 07 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 09N13W to 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to 03N35W to the coast of Brazil at the equator and 48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 06N between 12W and 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches across the NW Gulf of Mexico from eastern Louisiana to Corpus Christi, Texas. Recent satellite scatterometer data reveals fresh to strong N-NE winds behind the front. No significant precipitation is noted along this boundary. A surface trough stretches from Apalachee Bay, Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. A cluster of thunderstorms is within 90 nm east of the trough, between 23N and 26N, and is moving eastward towards Florida. Another surface trough in the W Gulf is supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms from 22N to 25N between 95W and 97W. Otherwise, tranquil conditions and gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow remain ahead of the cold front. Seas are 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to bring fresh to strong N to NE winds behind it. The front will stall from near central Florida to northeastern Mexico Fri and dissipate by this weekend. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will then prevail across most of the Gulf Fri night through Sat night ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast by late Sun. Strong winds will follow the front early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dry and stable airmass continues to dominate the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient due to a robust 1040 mb subtropical ridge near the Azores and lower pressures over Colombia support fresh to locally strong trades across the central Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Honduras, with the strongest winds occurring near the Colombian coast. Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere in the basin. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, the passages and Gulf of Honduras through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Fri before increasing slightly this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Gale Warning E of 35W has ended. A cold front extends from 31N74W to 27N77W just north of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong W winds are present N of 28N and W of 74W. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 22N61W to the Anegada Passage. The rest of the basin is governed by a robust 1040 mb subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores, allowing for fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicts a large area of fresh trades from 15N to 30N E of 45W. Fresh to strong trades are also noted from 03N to 15N between 40W and 50W. Strong to near gale force NE winds are north of the Canary Islands, east of 17W. Elsewhere, moderate trades prevail. Seas of 6 to 10 ft are occurring over a large region in the central and eastern Atlantic N of 05N and E of 60W, with the highest seas located from 27N to 31N and east of 40W. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail W of 60W, except in the Bahamas where seas are 2-4 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front will move off NE Florida late tonight/early Fri morning. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are expected along and following the front, north of 29N, tonight and Fri. High pressure building in the wake of this front will support fresh to strong winds and building seas this weekend across the Bahamas, Florida Straits, and Windward Passage. A second cold front is forecast to move offshore of Florida early Mon. Fresh to strong N winds will likely follow the front. $$ Mora