000 AXNT20 KNHC 061641 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jan 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1635 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force N to NE winds are forecast to continue within about 90 nm of the coast of Morocco in the Meteo-France marine zone Agadir through 07/0000 UTC tonight. Expect seas of 10 to 14 ft in the area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N10W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 03N32W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Isolated showers are observed from 02N to 08N and between 20W and 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak 1017 mb high pressure system over northern Florida continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in generally fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak surface trough stretches from 23N86W to the NW tip of the Yucatan peninsula and it is the source for a few showers near the eastern end of the trough axis. A cold front is approaching the NW Gulf and there are some weak showers in the area ahead of the frontal boundary. Surface observations depict moderate to fresh southerly winds in the NE Gulf, while gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 1-3 ft across the basin. For the forecast, surface ridging prevails across the basin supporting light to gentle winds this morning. A cold front is forecast to move off the N Gulf Coast this afternoon, bringing fresh to strong N to NE winds across the northern Gulf tonight. The front will stall from near central Florida to northeastern Mexico Fri morning and dissipate by this weekend. Fresh to locally strong SE to S return flow will then prevail across most of the Gulf Fri night through Sat night ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast by late Sun. Strong winds will follow the front early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dry and stable airmass continues to dominate the Caribbean Sea and the only source for weak showers are a few shallow patches of moisture moving across the basin in the trade winds. Isolated showers are noted in the NE Caribbean Sea, affecting the Leeward and Eastern Greater Antilles islands, as a weak surface trough moves through the region. Isolated showers are also noticed in the Gulf of Honduras. The pressure gradient due to a robust 1040 mb subtropical ridge near the Azores and lower pressures over northern South America result in fresh to strong trades across the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring near the Colombian coast. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also show fresh trades in the north-central and SW Caribbean, while gentle to locally fresh trades are present elsewhere in the basin. Seas of 5-8 ft are found in the south-central Caribbean, while seas of 2-5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Sun. The Gulf of Honduras will experience nightly pulses of fresh winds through Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Fri before increasing slightly this weekend. Fresh to strong winds will pulse over the weekend in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N73W to 28N76W, while a surface trough stretches from 30N78W to west-central Cuba. Isolated showers are seen north of 28N and between the trough and the cold front. Fresh southerly winds are present W of 74W and N of 27N. The rest of the basin is dominated by a robust 1040 mb subtropical ridge positioned near the Azores, allowing for fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict a large area of fresh to strong easterlies E of 53W. The area of strong winds is mostly contained to N of 20N and E of 44W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are prevalent. Seas of 7-10 ft are occurring over a large region in the central and eastern Atlantic, mainly E of 70W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail W of 70W. For the forecast W of 65W, a cold front will move off NE Florida late tonight or early Fri morning. Fresh to strong W to NW winds are expected along and following the front, north of 29N, tonight and Fri. High pressure building in the wake of this front will support fresh to strong winds this weekend across the Bahamas, Florida Straits and Windward Passage. A second cold front is forecast to move offshore of Florida early Mon. Fresh to strong N winds will likely follow the front. $$ DELGADO