000 AXNT20 KNHC 052340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A weakening cold front has moved across the waters offshore of Morocco and inland today, with strong to gale-force NE winds continuing behind the boundary as depicted in morning scatterometer satellite data. This area corresponds to the Meteo-France marine zone Agadir. Seas of 10 to 14 ft are expected in the area. The gale warning is in effect until 06/12Z. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent, reaching the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Liberia near 08N12.5W and extending to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N14W to 03N44W to the mouth of the Amazon River in Brazil near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed on satellite imagery within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 15W and 48W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure continues across the Gulf of Mexico, promoting fairly tranquil weather conditions. A surface trough is present across the full length of the Florida Peninsula. Dry stable air at middle levels of the atmosphere over the Gulf is suppressing the development of convection, and producing large patches of stratocumulus across much of the basin. Surface observations and earlier scatterometer satellite data show that gentle or weaker anticyclonic winds prevail. Seas are 1-2 ft across most of the basin except 3 ft across NW portions where gentle SE return flow has developed. High pressure across the Gulf will support light to gentle winds through Thu morning. A cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast by Thu afternoon, bringing fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the northern Gulf west of the front. The front will stall from near central Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Fri morning and dissipate by this weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will then prevail across most of the Gulf on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the Texas coast late Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Morning scatterometer satellite data showed strong to near gale- force trades in the south-central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring offshore NW Colombia. Winds have since diminished slightly, with seas of 7-9 ft prevalent in the south- central Caribbean. Fresh trades and seas of 4-7 ft are present in north-central and NE Caribbean. Moderate or weaker trades and seas of 1-4 ft are found elsewhere in the basin. A dry airmass prevails across the Caribbean Sea, greatly limiting the development of convection. A few patches of low-level moisture ride the trade winds across the basin, producing brief and weak showers. A surface trough is located about 60 nm east of the Yucatan peninsula from the NW Caribbean to the Gulf of Honduras, where a cluster of showers is seen near the north end of the trough from the NE coast of the Yucatan extending 75 nm offshore over the Yucatan Channel. The pressure gradient between modest high pressure E of Florida and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Sun. The Gulf of Honduras will experience nightly pulses of fresh winds from Thu night to Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Fri before increasing slightly this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N59W and extends to 28N70W. Weak high pressure of 1016 mb is off the Florida coast near 28N78W. A middle to upper level trough extends from S Florida to beyond 32N57W, overriding this front, and is supporting scattered moderate convection on both sides of the front, N of 27N and between 56W and 67W. Fresh to strong easterly winds prevail N of 30N between 52W and 60W, where seas are 11-15 ft in NW swell. The NW swell dominates the central Atlantic E of 70W, with seas of 7-12 from N of 24N between 48W and 71W. Moderate E to SE winds generally prevail across the remainder of the area N of 20N and S of the front to 75W. The rest of the basin is dominated by strong high pressure located over the NE Atlc, providing fairly tranquil weather conditions and moderate to fresh NE to E winds east of 40W. Seas there are 5-9 ft. For the forecast W of 65W, northerly swell impacting the waters north of 25N and east of 70W will subside tonight. A cold front will enter the far NW waters this evening, followed by a stronger cold front moving off NE Florida late Thu night or early Fri morning. High pressure building in the wake of this front will support fresh to strong winds over the waters N of Cuba and across the Bahamas this weekend. $$ Stripling