264 AXNT20 KNHC 050424 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jan 5 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 06N21W to 04N32W to 03.5N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. A surface trough extends from 07N47W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed on satellite imagery from 03N to 07N and between 17W and 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... An expansive 1030 mb high pressure system across the Mid-Atlantic coast extends southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico. The dry and stable airmass covering the basin only allows for a shallow layer of stratocumulus clouds to dominate the region, leading to fairly tranquil weather conditions. Mainly gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the Gulf. Seas of 3-5 ft are present over the southern half of the basin, with 1-3 ft seas north of 25N. For the forecast, high pressure extending across the Gulf of Mexico will produce light to gentle winds through today. A cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Thu. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will prevail across the northern Gulf west of the front. The front will stall from near central Florida to Tampico, Mexico where it will dissipate by this weekend. Fresh southerly return flow will then prevail across most of the Gulf on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the NW Caribbean from the Isle of Youth to the Honduras/Guatemala border near 16N88W. Clouds with possible isolated showers are along and west of the trough. The remainder of the Caribbean basin is free of any significant weather features or precipitation areas. A recent ASCAT satellite wind pass reveals fresh trades over the south-central Caribbean, with strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela and within 120 nm of the Colombia coast. Fresh NE winds are west of the aforementioned surface trough. Moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are likely 6-8 ft in the south-central and SW Caribbean, with 4-6 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through Sat. The Gulf of Honduras will experience pulses of fresh winds at night from Fri night to Sun night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through Fri before increasing slightly this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N57W to 28N63W to near 26.5N68.5W, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front to 26.5N72W, and continues as a shear line to 24N78W near southern Andros Island Bahamas. No significant precipitation other than light isolated showers accompany the front. The latest ASCAT satellite wind data show fresh E winds north of the front. Seas are 8-13 ft in this area, mainly north of 26.5N between 55W-78W. Gentle winds cover the Bahamas, thanks to a narrow ridge that extends from a 1025 mb surface high near 33N45W to 26N64W to 25N72W to the Bahamas. Seas are 4-7 ft along and south of the ridge axis, to the Greater Antilles. Just south of this ridge, a surface trough is along 68W, north of the Dominican Republic, accompanied by isolated showers. A surface trough extends from 30N44W to 20N45W. ASCAT shows fresh trades east of this surface trough to the coast of Africa, in the 20-30N latitude band. Mainly moderate trades prevail elsewhere across the Atlantic. Seas are 7-9 ft east of 50W and north of 21N. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to shift eastward, with winds and seas decreasing today west of 65W. A second cold front will move east of northern Florida tonight, followed by a stronger cold front moving off NE Florida late Thu night or early Fri morning. High pressure building in the wake of this front will support fresh to strong winds over the waters N of Cuba and the Bahamas this weekend. $$ Hagen