000 AXNT20 KNHC 040520 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures over Colombia will bring brief gale force winds near the coast of N Colombia through early this morning. Winds will then remain strong to near gale force through Wed. A recent scatterometer satellite pass from Monday evening shows strong to near gale-force trades occurring offshore N Colombia. Seas are expected to build to 11 ft early this morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N21W to 04N30W to 02N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N-04N between 03W-18W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen from 01S-06N between 41W-49W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface high pressure covers the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered over east Texas near 31N94W. Winds are gradually decreasing over the basin, but a recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong N winds prevailing over the Bay of Campeche south of 21N, with fresh N winds elsewhere over the SW Gulf and eastern Gulf. The ASCAT data show moderate NE winds over the central Gulf. Gentle winds are over the NW Gulf near the surface high pressure center. Seas of 10-14 ft are likely occurring over the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 7-10 ft cover the remainder of the southern Gulf, while 4-7 ft seas prevail over the northern Gulf. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to subside across the basin. Light to gentle variable winds are expected this afternoon through Wed. The next cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast on Thu, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds behind it across the northern Gulf. The front will extend from the Florida Big Bend to the southern tip of Texas Fri morning. The front will then stall before dissipating Fri night. Fresh southerly winds will then prevail across most of the Gulf through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details about the Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean. A cold front extends from west-central Cuba near 22.5N81W to 20N85W, where it becomes a stationary front, which continues to 18N88W near San Pedro Belize. Isolated showers are present near the front and in the western Gulf of Honduras. Fresh N winds are northwest of the front. Similar winds are present in the western Gulf of Honduras. Seas are likely 7-10 ft in the Yucatan Channel. A recent ASCAT pass shows strong to near gale force trades in the south-central Caribbean, off the coast of Colombia. Fresh winds surround this area, as far north as the south coast of Jamaica. Mainly moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6-10 ft over the south-central and SW Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging across the western Atlantic extending to the northern Caribbean and high pressure building in the wake of a cold front in the far NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and portions of the SW basin through Sat. Brief gale-force winds are expected near the Colombian coast early this morning. The fresh NE winds and seas in the Yucatan channel behind the cold front will gradually diminish today as the front stalls before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected to diminish in the E Caribbean today and resume again tonight through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N70W to Nassau Bahamas to west-central Cuba near 22.5N81W. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong SW winds within 360 nm east of the front, mainly north of 27N. Available data suggests that strong NW to N winds are likely occurring within 270 nm west of the front, north of 28.5N. Fresh N winds prevail elsewhere west of the front to the coast of Florida, and in the Florida Straits. Seas of 10-15 ft are likely occurring north of 29N between about 68W-76W. Seas of 6-10 ft are present elsewhere north of the Bahamas. A 1026 mb high pressure near 33N47W extends a surface ridge SW to the southeastern Bahamas. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail near the ridge axis, with seas of 3-6 ft. Farther east, a 1017 mb low pressure is near 25N38W. A surface trough extends northward from the low to 31N38W. A shear line extends southwestward from the low to 21N41W to 18N48W. Isolated showers and tstorms are near the low pressure. The latest ASCAT wind data show fresh to strong NE winds in between the low pressure and the aforementioned high pressure to the north of the area. Seas are likely 8-10 ft in this area. Fresh trades prevail between 45W-60W across the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ, where seas are 6-9 ft. The remainder of the basin consists of mainly moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast, the strong cold front extending from 31N70W to west-central Cuba will continue to support fresh to strong winds and rough seas through this morning, west of 65W. Winds will begin to diminish this afternoon and seas will gradually subside to the east of the Bahamas on Wed as the front continues to push farther east. A second cold front will move east of northern Florida Wed night followed by a stronger cold front moving off NE Florida early on Fri. Fresh to strong winds will affect the waters N of the Bahamas Fri and Sat. $$ Hagen