000 AXNT20 KNHC 011759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jan 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... .Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A strengthening winter storm is going to track east- northeastward from the US central Plains to the Northeast through Mon. A strong cold front associated with this storm will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun morning, reaching the SW Gulf Sun afternoon. Behind this front, near-gale to gale winds are expected to arrive at the NW Gulf Sun morning, W central Gulf near noon and then Bay of Campeche by late Sun afternoon. In response, seas will reach 11 to 15 ft across the NW Gulf by early Sun evening then peak at 17 to 20 ft, and spread to the W central Gulf Sun night before reaching the Bay of Campeche early Mon morning. .Western Atlantic Gale Warning... The cold front described above will exit the Georgia-S Carolina coastline into the W Atlantic Sun night, bringing gale force winds with seas at 10 to 13 ft offshore from the N Florida- Georgia coast by early Mon morning. Both winds and seas should begin to subside late Mon afternoon as the front moves farther away from the US into the W Atlantic. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both gale warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over the African continent. An ITCZ extends from just W of Liberia at 04N10W through 03N30W to N of Belem, Brazil near 01N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from the Equator to 06N between 11W and the Brazilian coast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning issued for the W Gulf. A surface ridge stretches westward from S Florida across the central Gulf to E Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough of low pressure over Texas/NE Mexico is supporting fresh to strong southerly winds across most of the Gulf, except the E edge along the Florida coast with moderate winds. Seas at 7 to 10 ft are found across the NW and N central Gulf, while 4 to 7 ft are present over SW and S central Gulf. Seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the E Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, fresh to strong return flow is across the Gulf W of 87W ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas late tonight into early Sun. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will follow this front across the basin, with gale conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun night. The front is forecast to move E of the Gulf Mon morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will gradually subside through Mon night. Light to gentle variable winds are expected Tue, then increasing to gentle to moderate Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tight gradient between a 1022 mb high N of the SE Bahamas and lower pressures near the Panama-Colombia border is maintaining a fresh ENE to E trade-wind pattern across the entire basin. A persistent band of convergent trades is triggering scattered showers across the basin from 13N to 17N between the Windward Islands and Honduras-Nicaragua coast. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found over the central basin between 67W and 80W. Moderate trades with seas at 4 to 6 ft are present over the NW basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the 1022 mb high is forecast to remain nearly- stationary through Sun, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin. Trade winds in the E basin will diminish to between gentle and moderate on Mon as a cold front enters the SW N Atlantic waters. The tail of this front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning, supporting fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel through Tue morning when the front is forecast to weaken as a stationary front from W Cuba to Belize. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning issued for the W Atlantic. A cold front curves westward across the central Atlantic from 31N44W to beyond 31N60W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring N of 26N between 42W and 51W. Further E, a weakening stationary front extends southwestward from NW of the Canary Islands at 31N24W to 19N47W. Scattered showers are present up to 80 nm NW of the feature N of 25N. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the basin. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are found near the cold front N of 27N between 36W and 50W. Also, residual NW swell is keeping seas at 7 to 9 ft N of 23N between the Canary Islands and 60W. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge of high pressure is promoting light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft N of 18N between the NW African coast and Florida/Bahamas. S of 18N between the African coast and the Lesser Antilles/S America, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary through Sun. The high pressure will weaken and move E on Sun evening ahead of a strong cold front that will enter the NW offshore waters late Sun night into Mon. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front starting Sat night, increasing to near-gale force Sun night and to gale force N of 30N early on Mon. Gale force conditions will diminish late Mon afternoon as the front moves away from the area. Building seas associated with the front will subside to the E of the Bahamas on Wed. $$ Chan