000 AXNT20 KNHC 312311 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 01 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... .Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning... A developing winter storm is forecast to track east-northeastward across the US central Plains to Great Lakes region this weekend. A strong cold front associated with this storm will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico Sun morning, reaching the SW Gulf Sun afternoon. Behind this front, near-gale to gale winds are expected to arrive at the NW Gulf Sun morning, W central Gulf near noon and then Bay of Campeche by late Sun afternoon. Seas behind the front will reach 10 to 16 ft across the NW Gulf by sunset Sun, then peak at 15 to 18 ft and spread to the SW and central Gulf by Sun night, and eventually to the Bay of Campeche early Mon morning. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over the African continent. An ITCZ extends from SW of Liberia near 03.5N13W to 04N33W to N of Brazil at 00N46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 06N between 08W and 39W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning issued for the NW and SW Gulf. A surface ridge stretches westward from the SW N Atlc across S Florida and the central Gulf to eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this ridge and a low pressure over S Texas/NE Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft across the W and central Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail for the E Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will sustain moderate to locally fresh southerly flow across the central and W basin through Sat, except winds will increase to between fresh and strong tonight thru Sat evening as the pressure gradient increases further ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas early on Sun. Strong to near-gale force northerly winds will follow this front across the basin, with gale conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun night. The front is forecast to move E of the gulf Mon morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will gradually subside through Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Tight gradient between a 1022 mb high near 25N69W and a low near the Panama-Colombia border is maintaining a fresh ENE to E trade- wind pattern across the entire basin. Convergent trades are triggering scattered showers across the central and E central basin, including the islands of Dominica and St. Lucia. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found over the S central basin, N of Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh trades and seas at 5 to 6 ft are present for the E and NW basin. Moderate to fresh trades with seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered N of Hispaniola is forecast to remain nearly-stationary through Sun, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin. The tail of a cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel. The front will stall from W Cuba to Belize by Mon night before dissipating early Tue. Winds will diminish to moderate speeds over the NW and E Caribbean on Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from SE of the Azores through 31N23W to 23.5N44W, then turns northward as a warm front to beyond 31N46W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 100 nm NW, and 60 nm SE of the cold front. Similar conditions are seen near the warm front N of 25N between 45W and 49W. A surface trough extends southwestward from W of Canary Islands at 27N26W to 17N41W. Scattered showers are noted up to 50 nm NW and SE of this feature N of 23N. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1022 mb high pressure located east of the Bahamas near 25N69W is supporting light to gentle winds with seas at 3 to 6 ft from 22N to 29N between 57W and the Florida-Georgia coast. N of 29N, moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present between 50W and Georgia coast, and also W of Canary Islands between 18W and 30W. Larger NW swell is generating seas at 10 to 14 ft N of 23N between 24W and 53W, despite the presence of light to gentle winds. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found from the Equator to 17N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle NE to SE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary through Sun. The high pressure will weaken and move E on Sun evening ahead of a strong cold front moving off the NE Florida coast Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front Sat night, increasing to near-gale force speeds Sun, and to gale force Sun night N of 30N. Gale conditions will diminish Mon morning. Building seas associated with the front will subside to the E of the Bahamas by midweek. $$ Stripling