000 AXNT20 KNHC 311009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Dec 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... High pressure centered east of the Bahamas will continue supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea through Sun. Winds pulsing to minimal gale force off Colombia will continue through this morning with seas up to 10 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 03N29W to 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 07N between 12W-27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The gradient between a 1020 mb high pressure in the western Atlantic and lower pressure over eastern Mexico is supporting moderate SE to S flow across the majority of the Gulf. Seas are predominately 3 to 5 ft across the basin. No significant convection is noted. For the forecast, surface high pressure will remain nearly stationary through the weekend supporting moderate to fresh return flow across the central and western basin, increasing to fresh to strong tonight as the pressure gradient increases ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas on Sat night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will follow this front, with gale conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun night. The front is forecast to move east of the gulf Mon morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will gradually subside through Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details about the gale warning in effect for the southern Caribbean. A 1020 mb high pressure centered north of the area is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean. Latest altimeter pass indicated seas in the area are 7 to 9 ft. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh E winds across the central Caribbean, while moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas in this area range from 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted. For the forecast, high pressure E of the Bahamas is forecast to remain nearly-stationary through the upcoming weekend, continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, central Caribbean and portions of the SW basin. Brief gale force winds will continue off the Colombian coast through this morning. The tail of a cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel. The front will stall from western Cuba to Belize by Mon night before dissipating. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the gale warning in effect for the eastern Atlantic. A 1020 mb high pressure located east of the Bahamas near 26N66W dominates the weather over the western Atlantic. This is generating mostly light to gentle anticyclonic flow and 3 to 5 ft seas west of 65W. Buoys are reporting moderate SW winds off the northeast Florida coast, along with moderate E winds and 6 ft seas south of 22N. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N29W to 25N43W to 31N53W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. In the vicinity of the front, 12-16 ft building seas from N of 26N between 23W and 50W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail N of 21N between 18W and 61W. To the east of the front, a surface trough extends from 30N23W to 17N45W. A fresh SW breeze and showers extends 120 nm east of the boundary. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure centered E of the Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary through the weekend. The high pressure will weaken and move east on Sun evening ahead of a strong cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front Sat night, increasing to near gale force speeds Sun and continuing through Mon morning. Building seas associated with the front will subside to the east of the Bahamas by mid-week. $$ ERA