000 AXNT20 KNHC 310536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Dec 31 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0605 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force wind Warning... Expect gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 9 feet, from 11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, off the coast of Colombia. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W, to 03N18W, 04N20W, 04N28W, to 01N33W and 02N40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 23W eastward. Scattered moderate to strong is within 90 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 23W and 26W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, through Florida along 28N, toward the Texas Gulf coast between the upper part of the coast and the central Texas Gulf coast. Moderate breezes or slower span the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the eastern one-third of the area. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Surface high pressure centered NE of the central Bahamas will remain nearly stationary through the weekend supporting moderate to locally fresh return flow across the central and western basin, increasing to fresh to strong Fri night as the pressure gradient increases ahead of a strong cold front forecast to come off the coast of Texas on Sat night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds will follow this front, with gale conditions affecting the NW and SW basin on Sun and Sun night. The front is forecast to move east of the gulf Mon morning. Winds and seas associated with the front will subside gradually through Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning for the coastal areas of Colombia. A surface trough, that is marked by a cloud line, is along 16N between 60W and 76W. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere, from 14N southward from 63W eastward, and from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 10 feet within 360 nm to the north of the coast of Colombia between 70W and 80W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. Strong winds cover much of the Caribbean Sea from the Greater Antilles southward between the Mona Passage and 80W, and within 120 nm to the north of Honduras from 85W westward. Fresh-to-moderate breezes cover the rest of the area. High pressure centered NE of the central Bahamas is forecast to remain nearly-stationary through the upcoming weekend, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean Sea, except for locally strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, in the central Caribbean Sea, and in parts of the SW corner of the basin. Brief gale force winds are expected off Colombia tonight. The tail of a cold front will enter the far NW Caribbean Mon morning supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and building seas in the Yucatan channel. The front will stall from western Cuba to Belize by Mon night before dissipating. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N33W 26N48W 31N54W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 20N northward between 30W and 60W. A dissipating stationary front passes through 31N23W to 20N35W. A surface trough continues from 20N35W to 16N60W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the dissipating front and surface trough. The sea heights range from 11 feet to 17 feet from the line 31N21W 25N36W 31N53W northward. The sea heights range from 8 feet to 11 feet, elsewhere from the line 31N14W 02N41W 10N60W 31N60W northward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 20N northward from 60W westward. Strong winds are from 09N southward between 40W and 50W. Strong winds, or faster and reaching near gale-force, are from 25N northward between 20W and 41W. Fresh winds are from 21N southward between 53W and 65W, and elsewhere from 13N southward between 37W and 53W. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 27N66W, about 550 nm to the ENE of the central Bahamas. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from the surface trough northward, from 60W westward and away from the cold front. High pressure centered NE of the central Bahamas will remain nearly-stationary through the weekend. The high pressure will weaken and move east on Sun evening, ahead of a strong cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds are forecast to the N of the Bahamas ahead of the front Sat night, increasing to near gale-force speeds Sun and continuing through Mon morning. Building seas associated with the front will subside to the east of the Bahamas by mid-week. $$ mt/era