263 AXNT20 KNHC 290438 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Dec 28 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A deepening low pressure system located over the central Atlantic is producing hurricane force winds N of the forecast area, with gale force winds that extend into the discussion area S of 31N. A cold front associated with the deepening low enters the Atlantic forecast region near 31N42W and extends westward to near 25N70W. SW winds to gale force are occurring E of the front to 40W and N of 28N, while gales behind the front are N of 30N and extend W to 53W. The front will move southwest through Wed, with gale force winds lifting NE of the area midday Tue. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front from 31N40W to 25N50W to 18N61W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm ahead of the trough axis N of 25N. Satellite derived winds depict fresh to strong winds covering the waters N of 26N between 38W and 58W. Large swell in excess of 8 ft will reach as far south as 22N through mid week, with seas as high as 20 ft along 30N.Both winds and seas should begin to subside Tue morning as the low pressure lifts out to the northeast. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Guinea and Sierra-Leone near 09N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to the coast of NE Brazil near 02N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N, east of 10W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The extension of a ridge that is centered east of West Palm Beach, Florida near 27N70W reaches westward across the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and seas of 1-3 ft prevails over the eastern half of the Gulf while moderate to fresh southerly winds with seas of 3-6 ft are noted over the western half of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure over the eastern Gulf will support moderate to fresh winds across the central and western Gulf through Wed night. The high pressure will shift eastward, allowing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin on Thu as a weak frontal boundary stalls and dissipates along the Texas coast. Looking ahead, southeast to south winds are expected to increase over the western Gulf by late Fri as low pressure moves into the Central Plains. A strong cold front associated with this low pressure may reach the Texas coast late Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak ridging over the Gulf from a high pressure located east of the Florida peninsula dominates the pattern across the Caribbean Sea. Recent scatterometer and altimeter passes confirmed the presence of fresh to strong northeast winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft off the coast of Colombia with moderate to locally fresh trades and 5-7 ft prevalent across the remainder of the south-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, seas of 3-5 ft are noted, with the exception of the far eastern part of the basin where gentle to moderate trades are observed. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh winds across the Caribbean into Tue, with strong winds pulsing off Colombia mainly at night. The high pressure will move eastward into the western Atlantic and strengthen beginning Wed supporting fresh to strong winds over parts of the central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the Atlantic forecast region near 31N42W and extends westward to near 25N70W. The front will move southeast through Wed. A surface trough analyzed ahead of the front from 31N40W to 25N50W to 18N61W. A Gale Warning is in effect over the central Atlantic in association with these features. Please read the Special Features section for more details. High pressure east of the Florida peninsula dominates the western Atlantic, resulting in mainly gentle anticyclonic winds off the Florida Peninsula to 65W and seas of 2 to 4 ft in this area. Further east, high pressure of 1026 mb situated near the coast of Morocco dominates the eastern Atlantic, producing light to gentle winds along the ridge axis that extends to near 19N52W. Moderate trade winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across the tropical Atlantic S of 17N and E of 60W. For the forecast W of 65W, the cold front along 25N east of 70W will move southeast of the region through Wed. High pressure currentlyover the eastern Gulf will shift eastward following the front, and strengthen northeast of the Bahamas Tue through Sat. $$ Nepaul