000 AXNT20 KNHC 232308 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 07N11W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 02N28W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-05N between 49W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high pressure centered over the Carolinas extends surface ridging southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. This is causing dry, stable conditions across the basin. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are occurring off the coast of southern Texas, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Moderate NE to E winds are over the SE Gulf and near the Yucatan Channel, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle anticyclonic winds are elsewhere, with 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. By tonight and continuing through early next week, fresh southerly return flow will establish over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front stretches from the Windward Passage to the eastern tip of Jamaica. A dissipating stationary front continues southwestward to 16N78W. Isolated showers are near the front. A surface trough extends from 18.5N69W to 14N74W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 90 nm east of the trough axis. No major areas of convection are noted elsewhere. Moderate to fresh N winds are occurring west of the stationary front with 4 to 5 ft seas. Fresh to strong N winds are likely occurring offshore of Nicaragua, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle trades are present east of the front over the central Caribbean with 2 to 3 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades are present east of 65W with 4 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate tonight into Fri. Fresh to locally strong winds will continue offshore Nicaragua through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades are expected in the eastern and central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches from 31N63W through the Turks and Caicos and into the Windward Passage. Scattered showers extend about 240 nm west and 180 nm east of the front. Moderate to fresh N winds are west of the front, with 5 to 7 ft seas. A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 29N37W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds from 26N-30N between 30W-50W. A stationary front extends from 31N17W to 24N29W to 24N45W. Scattered showers are north of 29N and east of 16W, east of the front. Moderate N-NE winds are within 120 nm N of the stationary front. Fresh to strong trades are prevalent north of the ITCZ to 15N, between 33W-55W, where seas are 8-11 ft. Seas of 11 to 14 ft prevail N of 25N between 16W-35W, associated with large NW to N swell. 8-11 ft seas are elsewhere north of 19N and east of 44W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front extending from 31N63W to the Turks and Caicos Islands will reach from near 31N60W to Haiti by Fri, and then from 31N45W to 21N65W early Sat. A reinforcing front will move through the area from 25N-31N between 65W-73W through tonight, bringing fresh to locally strong N winds there. Fresh to strong winds are expected Fri through Sat N of 28N between 35W-60W as the front moves east. High pressure will follow the front, building in over the western Atlantic Fri night into Sat. Low pressure moving eastward N of the area is likely to lead to another round of strong winds N of 28N Sat night into Mon night. Gale force winds are possible north of 29N between 35W-65W Sun night into Mon night. N swell from this system is forecast to cause seas of 12 to 22 ft early next week north of 21N between 30W-69W, highest on Mon north of 27N between 35W-63W. $$ Hagen