000 AXNT20 KNHC 231651 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Dec 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes along the northern Gulf of Guinea to the southern tip of Liberia near 05N08W. The ITCZ continues from 05N08W to 01N30W to 01N50W near the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and N of the ITCZ to 08N. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high pressure centered over Alabama is dominating Gulf weather today causing dry and stable conditions across the basin. Over the eastern Gulf, moderate to locally fresh NE flow is observed with a recent altimeter pass showing 3 to 5 ft seas. Along the Texas coast buoys are reporting moderate southerly flow extending about 180 nm from the coast with 2 to 4 ft seas. The remainder of the basin is dominated by gentle anticyclonic flow and 1 to 3 ft seas. A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. By tonight and continuing through the weekend, fresh southerly return flow will establish over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening cold front stretches from the Windward Passage to the southern coast of Nicaragua. Scattered weak convection is noted within 120 nm of the boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly flow dominates behind the front with a strong breeze along the coast of Nicaragua. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft behind the front. Farther east, a low pressure trough extends from the coast of the Dominican Republic to 15N73W in the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection and embedded thunderstorms are noted near this feature. Ahead of the cold front in the central Caribbean winds are generally gentle outside of any localized thunderstorm activity with 1 to 3 ft seas. The eastern Caribbean is dominated by fresh easterly trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. The cold front will drift east, then stall from Haiti to offshore Costa Rica tonight, while dissipating. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected behind the front offshore Nicaragua through tonight. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades are expected in the eastern and central Caribbean. For tropical Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh today, but seas of 8-9 ft in E swell will continue to propagate across this area through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches from 31N65W through the Turks and Caicos and into the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection extends about 360 nm east and 180 nm west of the front. Behind the front, buoys are reporting moderate northerly winds with 6 to 8 ft seas. East of the front, extending to 50W, moderate to fresh southerly winds are observed with 6 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 65W, the cold front will reach from near 31N60W to Haiti by Friday, then gradually move east of the area this weekend. A reinforcing front will move through NE portions of the area today, bringing some strong winds N of 28N and E of 75W. High pressure will follow the front. Low pressure N of the area may lead to another around of strong winds N of 28N this weekend. To the east, another cold front stretches from the Canary Islands to 23N35W to 24N45W. Convection associated with this front is mainly confined to waters near the Canary Islands. High pressure of 1025 mb, centered near 30N39W, is pushing southward behind this front. Winds N of the front are moderate or less, but a recent altimeter pass confirmed seas of 10 to 14 ft in northerly swell. S of 20N, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE trades are ongoing with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, winds are mainly moderate or less, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. $$ FLYNN