000
AXNT20 KNHC 231016
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Dec 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian at 05N, to 
06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 02N30W to 01N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted N of the ITCZ to 10N. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1023 mb high pressure centered near the Mississippi coast is
dominating Gulf weather early this morning. Over the eastern Gulf,
moderate to locally fresh NE flow dominates, with moderate SE flow
off the Texas coast, and generally light to gentle easterly winds
elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the SE Gulf, 2 to 4 ft offshore
Texas, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Dry conditions prevail. 

The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several 
days. By tonight and continuing through the weekend, fresh 
southerly return flow will establish over the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front stretches from the Windward Passage to the southern
coast of Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
240 nm east of the front to the N of 15N, and 120 nm east of the
front to the S of 15N. Behind the front, fresh N winds are
occurring as high pressure noses southward from the Gulf of
Mexico. 

The remainder of the basin is dry. Fresh winds are noted over the
eastern Caribbean, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere ahead of
the cold front. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the basin, except 2 to 4
ft in the central Caribbean and 6 to 8 ft within 120 nm of the
coast of Nicaragua. 

The cold front will drift east, before stalling from Haiti to 
offshore Costa Rica tonight, and dissipating Friday. Fresh to 
locally strong winds are expected behind the front offshore 
Nicaragua through tonight. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades are 
expected in the eastern and central Caribbean. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches from Bermuda through the Turks and Caicos
and into the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate convection
extends about 240 nm to the east of the front. Moderate to fresh
NW winds are occurring behind the front, with seas of 6 to 8 ft.
To the east of the front, extending to 50W, moderate to fresh
southerly winds have developed, with seas also ranging from 6 to 8
ft. 

To the east, another cold front stretches from the Canary Islands
to 24N35W to 25N45W. Convection associated with this front is
mainly confined to waters near the Canary Islands. High pressure
of 1028 mb, centered near 32N40W, is building southward behind
this front. Winds N of the front are moderate or less, but seas of
8 to 11 ft are being observed. 

S of 20N, fresh to locally strong trades are ongoing with seas of
8 to 11 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, winds are mainly moderate or
less, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. 

The cold front will reach from near 31N60W to Haiti by Fri, then
gradually move east through the area this weekend. A reinforcing 
front will move through NE portions of the area today, bringing 
some strong winds N of 28N and E of 75W. High pressure will follow
the front. Low pressure N of the area may lead to another around 
of strong winds this weekend, N of 28N.

$$
KONARIK