000 AXNT20 KNHC 222301 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Dec 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 08N20W to 02N35W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of 46W from 01N-06N. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging extends from north to south across the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, where winds are light to gentle with 2 to 4 ft seas. Moderate to fresh N winds prevail over the eastern half of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the NE Gulf and 4 to 6 ft in the SE Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several days. By Thu night and continuing into the weekend, fresh southerly return flow will establish over the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 2100 UTC, a cold front stretches from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to the Honduras/Nicaragua border near 15N83W. Isolated showers and tstorms are along the frontal boundary. A few showers are also noted ahead of the front in the Windward Passage. Mainly moderate NW to N winds prevail behind the front in the NW Caribbean, except for fresh to the north of eastern Honduras. Winds ahead of the front are generally gentle, increasing to a moderate to fresh easterly breeze in the eastern Caribbean. Seas are 4 to 6 ft behind the cold front in the Western Caribbean and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will move slowly eastward, then stall from Haiti to near 11N81W by Fri while dissipating. Fresh to locally strong N winds are expected behind the front offshore Nicaragua tonight through Thu night. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades are expected in the eastern and central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches from 31N69W through the central Bahamas near San Salvador and Long Island, and to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. Scattered moderate convection with embedded thunderstorms is noted along and within 120 nm east of the front. Strong SW winds are likely occurring east of the front to 60W, mainly north of 27N. Fresh W to NW winds extend westward from the front to Florida, from 23N to 31N. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are present north of 28N between 61W-76W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere west of 60W, except lower in the shallow water near the Bahamas. A surface trough extending from 23N61W to 18N63W contains isolated showers. Strong SE winds are east of the surface trough. A cold front extends from 31N21W to 25N39W to 27N46W, where it transitions to a warm front that continues to 31N53.5W. Scattered showers are along the cold front, mainly east of 27W. Large NW to N swell is building southward behind the cold front. Seas of 8 to 13 ft are present north of 26N between 21W-52W. Surface high pressure of 1028 mb is north of the front near 33N43W. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are present from the ITCZ to 18N between 33W and 60W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere east of 60W. For the forecast, the cold front extending from 31N69W to eastern Cuba will reach from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by Thu morning, and from 31N60W to Haiti by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds on either side of the front will gradually diminish west of 65W through Thu night. By early Sat, the strong winds associated with this front will be confined to areas east of 52W, north of 28N. High pressure will follow the front over the western Atlantic, to the east of Florida, Fri into Sat, brining quieter conditions. Looking ahead, the subtropical high pressure ridge will sink southward to along 25N late this weekend, while a strong low pressure develops well north of the area, over the north Atlantic. This pattern will tighten the pressure gradient, bringing strong to potentially near-gale force westerly winds to areas north of 29N across much of the Atlantic Sunday into Monday. Large NW to N swell with seas of 12 to 20 ft are possible north of 27N and east of 70W by Mon. $$ Hagen