319 AXNT20 KNHC 181008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Dec 18 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE, for the area AGADIR. The gale-force winds will last from 03z today, until 18z later in the day today. Please, refer to the website: http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_WARNING.1915.17 19153323576.html, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian at 06N to 05N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 05N29W. A surface trough extends from 07N35W to 03N39W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 27W and 29W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in association with the surface trough, S of 09N between 35N and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure centered over the SE U.S. is dominating the eastern Gulf, with scattered moderate convection moving northward along its periphery along 87W from 23N to 28N. Generally moderate SE to S wind prevail over the basin, with seas of 2 to 5 ft. Patchy fog is noted on satellite imagery and surface observations within about 60 nm of shore from the Upper Texas coast to about Mobile Bay. A cold front will move off the Texas coast late this evening, bringing strong to possibly near gale-force winds to the NW Gulf and down the coast of Mexico Sun into Mon. The front will move slowly until low pressure forms along in the in the central Gulf late Mon, then moves NE into the SE U.S. Tue, dragging the cold front across the Gulf as it does. Winds and seas will subside Tue night into Wed in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak upper level trough from the Yucatan Channel to Nicaragua is inducing scattered moderate convection. Scattered moderate convection is also noted S of 10N in association with the eastward extension of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, fairly dry air and stable conditions is keeping the Caribbean rain-free. Strong to near gale-force winds dominate the central basin, highest offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the eastern basin with moderate to fresh winds in the western Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the central, eastern, and southwest Caribbean, with 3 to 6 ft seas in the NW. High pressure building south through the Atlantic will support fresh to strong trades over the central and eastern Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic this weekend. The high will move east for the start of next week, leading to weaker trades. Large N to NE swell will continue in the tropical N Atlantic as well as Mona and Anegada Passages through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the Yucatan Channel Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front stretches from 31N23W to 23N35W to 19N44W. A shear line then continues west to 19N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm E of the cold front, to the N of 27N. Low pressure to near 35N24W, on the northern edge of the cold front, is producing gale conditions to the east, please see Special Features section above for details. To the W of this low, strong W winds are occurring N of 28N and E of 50W. A 1026 mb surface ridge is centered just S of Bermuda. This is leading to gentle to moderate winds N of 26N, with fresh to strong trades to the S. The highest winds are just N of the cold front and shear line between 35W and 50W as well as just N of the Greater Antilles. Seas of 12 to 15 ft are noted in N swell N of 26N and E of 50W, with most of the rest of the Atlantic, N of 10N and E of 55W, having seas of 8 to 11 ft. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are also being observed S of 24N, to the W of 55W, including the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos, and the SE Bahamas. Elsewhere, seas of 4 to 7 ft are occurring. For the forecast W of 60W, high pressure centered NE of the area is inducing a broad area of mainly gentle winds N of 26N. To the south, the gradient between the high and lower pressure over the Caribbean and Tropical Atlantic is causing mainly strong winds, including over and near the Greater Antilles. These conditions will prevail through the weekend, before the high moves to the east and winds relax. A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night into Mon, then spread E over the northern waters, bringing strong winds on both sides of it, mainly N of 28N. Low pressure is likely to move NE off the SE U.S. coast Tue into Wed, bringing another potential for strong winds. Large N swell impacting the Atlantic zone from 19N-22N between 55W-65W will diminish on Sun. $$ KONARIK