000
AXNT20 KNHC 160847
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Dec 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 05N22W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N22W to 03N30W to 04N36W to 04N47W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 28W,
and from 02N to 05N between 48W and 51W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail over the NW Gulf as well as the Florida
Straits. Moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft 
range over the NE Gulf with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
forecast waters through Sat, supporting moderate to locally
fresh winds. A cold front is forecast to enter the basin
Saturday night into early Sunday. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas will prevail west of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the 
western Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting 
fresh to strong trade winds over the central and eastern
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the western
Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the central 
Caribbean, 7-8 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the 
western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure will prevail over the 
western Atlantic through the forecast period. This will support 
fresh to strong trade-winds over the eastern and central Caribbean
through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades are expected 
elsewhere. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N42W to 26N52W to 31N68W. High
pressure of 1035 mb is building in the wake of the front centered
near 39N63W. This area of high pressure is supporting a large area
of fresh to strong winds over much of the waters north of 16N
between 50W and 70W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of
70W. Gales north of the area have generated a large northerly
swell which has propagated into the northern waters. The swell is
producing seas of 12 ft or greater north of 29N between 47W and 
58W, and are currently peaking near 15 ft over the discussion 
waters. Seas of 7-8 ft are found between 52W and 75W in a mix of
northerly swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are east of
40W, with moderate to fresh winds between 40W and 60W. Seas over
this area are in the 4-7 ft range. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area is supporting 
moderate to fresh winds over the forecast waters. The area of 
high pressure will build southward, bringing an increase in 
winds and seas. 

$$
AL