000
AXNT20 KNHC 150854
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N20W to 06N24W to 09N38W to 04N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 12N between 13W and 40W.


GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends just north of the forecast waters.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of 25N with moderate winds
north of 25N. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range south of 25N and 3-4 
ft north of 25N. 

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern 
forecast waters through Sat, supporting moderate to locally fresh 
winds. A cold front is forecast to enter the basin Saturday night 
into early Sunday. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will 
prevail west of the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient from high pressure centered over the 
western Atlantic combined with lower pressure over Colombia is 
supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean. Fresh
to locally strong winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 5 
to 7 ft, reaching 8 ft in the areas of stronger winds. 

For the forecast, strong high pressure will prevail over the 
western Atlantic through the forecast period. This will support 
fresh to strong trade- winds over the eastern and central 
Caribbean through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades are 
expected elsewhere. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N46W to 27N53W. Scattered showers are 
noted within 60 nm of this boundary. Fresh to locally strong winds
are noted south of 23N and west of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds
are noted elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical waters north
of 20N. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the tropical waters
south of 20N. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range south of 25N and 4-7
ft north of 25N. 

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the 
Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. 
Medium to high ash concentrations are expected near and south of 
the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this 
ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by 
Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure north of the area is 
supporting moderate to fresh winds over the forecast waters. The 
area of high pressure will build southward, bringing an increase 
in winds and seas. 

$$
AL