000 AXNT20 KNHC 140916 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Dec 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 09N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 06.5N35W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm north and 90 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails over the northern waters. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the southeast Gulf with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the southeast Gulf, 1-3 ft over the northeast Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern forecast waters through the week. Fresh east winds will spread westward through the Straits of Florida and into the eastern Gulf S of 26N through midweek along with building seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient from high pressure centered over the southeast U.S. combined with lower pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean as well as over the Windward Passage, south of Cuba and Hispaniola, and offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft, reaching near 8 ft in the areas of stronger winds. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will continue over the south- central Caribbean through the week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. Strong high pressure will prevail over the western Atlantic through the forecast period. This will result in fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds in the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and south of Hispaniola through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N51W to 29N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of this boundary north of 30N. A 1028 mb Azores high is centered near 39N28W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting a large area of fresh to strong winds from 13N to 24N and between 24W to 60W. Seas are in the 7 to 11 ft range in this region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N, with seas of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere over the tropical waters south of 20N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted. The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Medium to high ash concentrations are expected near and south of the volcano. Marine and aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/. For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure prevails across the western Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh winds over the forecast waters. High pressure will build southward from the middle to end of the week resulting in an increase in winds and seas. $$ AL